The most ominous thing about inflation is not that living costs were up by a three-decade high of 6.7 per cent last month.
Scarier is the fact that inflation is gaining velocity. The year-over-year inflation rate was 4.8 per cent in December, 5.1 per cent in January and 5.7 per cent in February. Inflation has been on the rise for more than a year now, but we have never seen a month-to-month jump like we did in March compared with the previous month.
Let’s look at four challenges for your finances caused by the worsening inflation problem:
Interest rates are going up more than expected:
The surprisingly high inflation rate in March adds to urgency for the Bank of Canada to act decisively to cool inflation. This raises the likelihood of harder, faster rate increases. The central bank’s benchmark overnight rate has already increased by 0.75 of a percentage point this year. Expect another jump of 0.5 of a point on June 1, and more increases over the second half of the year. Lines of credit, floating rate loans and variable rate mortgages will get considerably most expensive. Some good news on rates – returns on savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates are on the rise. Four per cent GICs are now available for a five-year term.
There’s little chance wages will catch you up
Average hourly wages were up 3.4 per cent in March on a year-over-year basis, basically half the inflation rate. It may be possible in certain sectors to negotiate a raise or bonus to fully offset inflation, but on average it looks like pay hikes will fall well short of rising living costs. This means falling purchasing power – you may spend more to buy the same amount of groceries and other goods and services.
Bonds are going to be absolutely pasted this year
Rising interest rates mean lower prices for bonds and bond funds. But you already know that if you’ve followed the conventional advice to have some bonds in your portfolio to cushion against stock market declines. For the year through April 19, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was down 9.7 per cent. We are a few decimal points from double-digit losses in bonds.
Housing looks vulnerable
The average resale home price in Canada is up 47 per cent over the past two years. Now, the cost of financing a mortgage at today’s high prices is rising. Whether you’re a regular home buyer or an investor, these higher financing costs are going to worsen affordability. It would take a considerable price decline to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates.
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Rob’s personal finance reading list
Insuring a rental car: The credit card option
A deep dive into collision-damage protection available from reward credit cards. One lesson here is not to rent a superpremium vehicle.
So you need $5,000 per month in retirement
A case study by the My Own Advisor blog on how much you would need to save to generate income of $5,000 per month in retirement. Some emphasis on the all-important question of what assumption to make on inflation rates looking forward.
‘I’m old, not an idiot’
All about a 79-year-old in Spain who has Parkinson’s Disease and can’t easily use a bank machine or banking app. He’s drawn a lot of support after starting an online petition arguing banks and other institutions should serve all citizens, rather than sideline the oldest and most vulnerable members of society in their rush to online services.
Housing prices versus incomes
The unaffordability problem in housing explained: a giant and growing gap between the growth in house prices and incomes.
Q&A
Q: What do you suggest I do to benefit from higher interest rates and inflation? I am a senior, 77 years old, retired, and basically on a fixed income. I am not rich, not poor and my basics are covered. How can I take advantage of the cash I have that is not invested with my financial planner? I do have some TFSA room. That account has cash and laddered GIC’s at the moment.
A: Sounds like you’re a conservative investor, which suggests that your laddered GICs and savings are the right thing to hold. Rates for both are climbing now as interest rates move higher to cool down inflation. For some riskier inflation-fighting investment options, check out a column I did not too long ago.
Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can't answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.
Today’s financial tool
Websites to help you compare the price of popular products at different retailers in your region and across the country.
The Money-Free Zone
Boomers, an AM radio blast from your past. The 1977 hit Mama Let Him Play by Vancouver’s Jerry Doucette, who died this week.
Who I’m following on Twitter
Hall of Fame pitcher Ferguson Jenkins, a native of Chatham, Ont. He won 20 games in six straight season for the Chicago Cubs, who are unveiling a statue of him on May 20.
In case you missed these Globe and Mail personal finance-related stories
- Don’t believe the ESG marketing hype – you won’t make the world a better place with your investment portfolio
- How to keep inflation and taxes from devouring capital gains
- Can Genevieve and Sam retire and spend more time travelling?
More Rob Carrick and money coverage
Subscribe to Stress Test on Apple podcasts or Spotify. For more money stories, follow me on Instagram and Twitter, and join the discussion on my Facebook page. Millennial readers, join our Gen Y Money Facebook group.
Even more coverage from Rob Carrick:
- 🎧 Catch up on Stress Test: Are your parents giving you money? • Why it’s time to stop shaming the renting lifestyle • Is now the right time to buy a house? • Why are young Canadians leaving the cities they love? • Eating in: How COVID has shifted our food spending • Crisis-proof your finances? • Can you afford to live downtown? • The cost of kids
- ✔️ The housing file: The housing boom is ripping apart the financial fabric of Canada • Shut out: A well-qualified millennial home seeker throws up his hands after losing multiple bidding wars • Big city housing affordability is over – now what? • She sold her Toronto house to retire somewhere cheaper, but it didn’t work • How young adults and the whole country win with a tougher mortgage stress test for home buyers • Can’t afford your house? It’s likely not your fault
- 📈 Investing: Robo-advisers have grown out of the novelty stage. Here’s help in finding one right for you • The 2021 ETF Buyer’s Guide: Best Canadian equity funds • The 2021 Globe and Mail online brokerage ranking: Who’s best for investing … and answering the phone • Are these the stock market returns of a lifetime? • On the cusp of retirement and wondering about an ETF that pushes the limits on aggressiveness
- 💰 Your money: The five most important numbers for checking the health of your personal finances • Today’s freakishly low mortgage rates can’t last. What will pandemic home buyers do when they rise? • There’s a cost in money, isolation and family stress when seniors choose to remain in their own private homes • Taking CPP early can cost you $100,000 and limit your long term options • Fleeing the city for the suburbs? Watch out for higher property taxes, more cars and other costs
Are you reading this newsletter on the web or did someone forward the e-mail version to you? If so, you can sign up for Carrick on Money here.
