Mortgage rates mostly going nowhere fast
Most of Canada’s lowest nationally-advertised rates didn’t move an iota this week.
That’s kind of a win for mortgage shoppers given the surge in bond yields that followed the blockbuster U.S. employment data last week.
The two exceptions were default-insured four- and five-year fixed rates. They rose 15 and 5 basis points, respectively. Big deal.
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Over in the floating-rate market, there are lots of crickets. Borrowers don’t want to pay over a point more to go variable, even if it’s just for the next 12 months. That’s roughly how long it’ll take for the prime rate to start dropping, according to the latest implied rates in the overnight index swap market.
As of just a few weeks ago, markets were pricing in the first BoC rate cut this fall. Such are the erratic changes you can expect in the OIS market. No one ever said markets were perfect rate predictors.
The good news is, markets are usually right about direction, and if they’re right this time, the next rate change from the Bank of Canada should help borrowers, not hurt.
Rates are as of Feb. 9, 2023 from providers that advertise rates online and lend in at least nine provinces. Insured rates apply to those buying with less than a 20 per cent down payment, or those switching a pre-existing insured mortgage to a new lender. Uninsured rates apply to refinances and purchases over $1-million and may include applicable lender rate premiums. For providers whose rates vary by province, their highest rate is shown.
Robert McLister is an interest rate analyst, mortgage strategist and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on Twitter at @RobMcLister.