Performance Food Group Sees Disinflation Tailwinds in 2025

Performance Food Group Co. (NYSE: PFGC) is one of the largest food service distributors in the United States. The company sources, markets, and delivers food and food-related products through a network of over 150 distribution facilities to over 125,000 businesses in the food service industry. The company is acquiring food service distributor Cheney Brothers for $2.1 billion, which will expand its footprint with restaurant and hospitality customers in the Southeastern region of the United States. The drop in inflation back under 3% and the impending interest rate cuts are positive tailwinds that the market anticipates for the company.

Disinflation Should Not Be Mistaken for Deflation

Performance Food Group is a benefactor of disinflation, which is not to be confused with deflation. Disinflation occurs when the rate of inflation slows down, which means prices are still rising but at a slower pace. For example, when inflation drops from 9% to 2.9%, as indicated by the recent July consumer price index (CPI) report. Disinflation eases procurement costs and improves gross margins. It also improves demand and business spending power. Interest rate cuts are meant to be disinflationary.

Deflation occurs when general prices actually fall. This can result in a negative inflation rate, which can be harmful to the economy. Deflation occurs during severe economic downturns.

Performance Food Group operates in the retail/wholesale sector, competing with food distributors such as Sysco Co. (NYSE: SYY), United Natural Foods Inc. (NYSE: UNFI), and SpartanNash Co. (NASDAQ: SPTN).

Performance Food's Exclusive Portfolio of Brands

The company has exclusive brands under its Performance Foodservice segment, with categories like Center of Plate (COP) and Seafood. These brands offer beef, poultry, and seafood to high-end luxury steakhouses, fast-food burger joints, and on-the-go food trucks. Its exclusive seafood brands include top-tier Bay Winds, Empire's Treasure, The Fresh Catch, and World Dock.

Its Bakery & Desserts category carries exclusive products from Heritage Ovens, Sweet Encore, Piancone and Roma gelato, tiramisu, cannoli, and coffee and expresso from Italy. Performance sells thousands of products covering condiments to freshly caught fish from over 100 exclusive brands, including custom-cut meats. Its customers range from restaurants to convenience stores, hotels, schools, universities, retail, senior living, and healthcare facilities.

PFGC Stock Is Back in an Ascending Parallel Price Channel

The daily candlestick chart for PFGC shows an ascending price channel pattern. The ascending upper trendline connects the higher highs, and the lower trendline connects the higher lows. While PFGC fell out of the channel before its earnings report, the price gap from $67.34 to $70.73 placed shares firmly back into the channel. The daily relative strength index (RSI) rose to the 70-band. Pullback support levels are at $70.73, $67.34 gap fill, $65.19, and $63.35.

The Turnaround Is Accelerating

Performance Food Group reported fiscal Q4 2024 EPS of $1.45, beating consensus estimates of $1.37 by 8 cents. Adjusted EBITDA rose 18.4% to $456.2 million. Revenues rose 2.3% YoY to $15.2 billion versus $15.25 billion. Total case volume grew 1.1% YoY. Organic independent food service case volume rose by 3.7%. Net income rose 10.9% YoY to $166.5 million. Overall, product cost inflation for its food service business rose 2.9% in the quarter. Its Foodservice segment sales rose 4.6% to $7.7 billion. The Vistar segment had a 1.8% drop in net sales to $1.2 billion. The Convenience segment's net sales dropped by  0.5% YoY to $6.3 billion.

Performance Food Group Issues Mixed Guidance

For fiscal Q1 2025, Performance Food Group issued downside revenue guidance of $15.2 billion to $15.5 billion versus the $15.54 billion consensus. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around $400 million to $425 million. Business results for Jose Santiago are expected to be added to the quarter.

For the fiscal full year 2025, the company expects revenues of $60 billion to $61 billion versus $60.83 billion consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal full year 2025 is expected to be between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion.

Performance Food Group CEO George Holm commented on the 2 recent acquisitions, “While small relative to PFG’s total business, we believe José Santiago will be accretive to earnings, cash flow, and margins immediately. Taken together, we believe these two deals position PFG very well for the future growth of the Southeastern United States and the Caribbean territories.”

The article "Performance Food Group Sees Disinflation Tailwinds in 2025" first appeared on MarketBeat.