If you're a dividend investor with a leaning toward value investing, you'll want to do a deep dive on Medtronic(NYSE: MDT), Texas Instruments(NASDAQ: TXN), and, perhaps, even Stanley Black & Decker(NYSE: SWK). Here's why these three out-of-favor stocks are worth doubling down on now, before investors start to realize the opportunity they present.
1. Medtronic had a rough patch
Medtronic is one of the largest medical device makers on the planet. It operates in the cardiovascular, neuroscience, medical-surgical, and diabetes areas of the healthcare sector. Right now the stock is yielding a historically high 3.2%, suggesting that the shares are on sale. The dividend has been increased annually for 46 consecutive years, however, so this is no fly-by-night company, and it has proved that it places a high priority on returning value to shareholders through dividends.
But why is the dividend yield so high? The simple answer is that Medtronic has been having trouble getting new products over the finish line with regulators. If a product doesn't get approved, all of the money spent on research and development is effectively wasted. However, the backlog of products needing approval is working through the system and with positive outcomes. That's good, but now investors are worried about the impact that mass adoption of new weight-loss drugs might have on Medtronic's business. The company believes the fear is overblown, and investors with a long-term view should probably give management the benefit of the doubt on this one, focusing instead on the success with approvals. Although the current fiscal year might not be the best for Medtronic, the long-term future still looks pretty bright.
2. Texas Instruments is spending in a downturn?
Texas Instruments makes microchips, which are highly cyclical products. The overall industry is currently in a downturn, so investors have shunned the stock just as they have most of the company's peers (AI chip makers are an exception, as this niche has attracted intense investor demand). Texas Instruments' dividend yield today is historically high at around 3.1% -- only this isn't your typical chip stock.
For starters, Texas Instruments has increased its dividend annually for two decades, which shows an incredible dedication to investors within an often volatile industry. Second, the company makes relatively simple products that have long shelf lives and go into just about every digital product. (To give you an idea, the company has more than 100,000 customers. In a world that's getting increasingly digital, it seems far more likely that demand goes up than down over the long term.
That's why it's so odd that investors are upset by Texas Instruments' capital spending plans right now. Essentially, the fear is that management is spending a lot of money on building additional production capacity during an industry downturn, but that spending will set the company up to exit the downturn a bigger and better competitor. Long-term investors should probably find management's countercyclical approach appealing.
3. Stanley Black & Decker is expecting a big improvement in 2024
Industrial company Stanley Black & Decker is probably the most aggressive name here, given that it's a turnaround situation. The toolmaker got itself into trouble thanks to a series of debt-funded acquisitions that left it overleveraged just as it had to deal with inflation and supply-chain disruptions around the coronavirus pandemic. Management has been trimming debt with asset sales, cost cuts, and attempts to better manage inventory levels. But adjusted earnings have dropped sharply, going from a record $10.48 in 2021 to an expected range of $1.10 to $1.40 per share in 2023. That's an ugly nosedive, and investors have punished the stock accordingly, pushing the yield up to a historically high 3.3%.
But management is starting to make some tangible headway. Leverage has been reduced, margin has been improving, and the company is expecting adjusted earnings to rebound strongly in 2024. As the company started its turnaround effort, it projected that earnings in 2024 could end up falling between $4 and $5 a share. Although it hasn't given 2024 guidance just yet, management confirmed to analysts during its third-quarter conference call that this range still seems reasonable. Given how weak earnings are going to be in 2023, even the low end of that range would mean a huge earnings improvement. Investors will probably change their view of Stanley Black & Decker if it can pull off this earnings rebound. Still, this Dividend King is the riskiest of the three options here, and it's probably most suitable for more aggressive investors.
If you like dividends, don't sleep on these stocks
Stocks don't end up with historically high yields for no reason, it usually means something is wrong. The question is whether that something is temporary or long-lasting. For Medtronic, Texas Instruments, and Stanley Black & Decker, it seems likely that the problems they're dealing with will pass, given enough time. If you share that view, then these historically reliable dividend stocks might just be worth doubling down on while Wall Street is still so negative on their respective outlooks.
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Reuben Gregg Brewer has positions in Medtronic, Stanley Black & Decker, and Texas Instruments. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Texas Instruments. The Motley Fool recommends Medtronic. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
