For longtime shareholders of Sundial Growers, now known as SNDL, (NASDAQ: SNDL) the fun looks like it's finally starting. Hot off a protracted period of consolidating its operations and substantially diversifying its business, the company will probably soon have the opportunity to increase its top and bottom lines at the same time.
But old reputations die hard, and for many investors, the risk of it continuing to experience volatility and a falling share price by virtue of being an unprofitable cannabis stock still looms large. So, which of these narratives is more accurate, and more importantly, is the stock a buy? Let's dive in and analyze.
Why this one is finally ripe for buying
At its core, the SNDL of today is a company that made the most out of its meme stock status in 2021.
With its share price elevated significantly amid buzz surrounding cannabis stocks, management opted to issue a large amount of stock, accumulating $1.1 billion in Canadian dollars ($800.4 million in U.S. currency) in cash, equivalents, and investments by the third quarter of 2021.
It then used the money on a series of acquisitions of cannabis and beer companies in Canada, its home market, and created a new segment exclusively for investing in cannabis businesses in North America.
All of that didn't make it profitable, but after a few years of cost-cutting in the wake of those transformational changes, it's close to turning a quarterly operating profit. And with no long-term debt and CA$783.2 million in unrestricted cash, marketable securities, and investments, it clearly is not about to run out of money.
At the same time, it now has the largest retail footprint of all the marijuana players in Canada, with a market share of 9%, and CA$294 million in trailing-12-month (TTM) revenue from the segment. It's also the biggest private-sector retailer of liquor in the country. And via its cannabis investments in the U.S., it has exposure to market growth if federal marijuana legalization ever passes.
Few of its North American competitors in cannabis are remotely as well positioned, and fewer still have balance sheets that are as solid. As those players continue to struggle with their unprofitable operations, SNDL can -- and likely will -- scoop them up at fire-sale prices, expanding its market share even more. And all the while, it will be collecting income from its loans to businesses in the U.S., perhaps also securing equity in the process.
In short, the long night is over, and now it's SNDL's time to shine.
Skittish investors might want to look elsewhere
The outlook for SNDL stock over the next few years is quite positive. But it won't be without obstacles to navigate.
In particular, revenue growth in the Canadian cannabis segment might be hard to come by because the market is relatively saturated compared to demand. Its plans to invest in U.S. cannabis companies might be stymied by regulations, or perhaps by competition from other acquisition-hungry consumer brands businesses.
And though it seems like investors have acknowledged its progress enough to bid up its share price recently, the gains could be short-lived if it remains operationally unprofitable for longer than anticipated.
Still, it's now hard to imagine SNDL continuing to burden shareholders with heavy losses amid any remaining cost-cutting during its long climb toward consistently reporting free cash flow (FCF), or what's left of cash flow after capital expenditures. It probably won't be issuing more shares to make acquisitions or raise fresh cash, though it could benefit from raising capital by issuing new debt if there are enough attractive opportunities to chase.
As an unprofitable cannabis stock, it's still riskier than an average business. But with the bulk of its strategic pivot completed, and few major headwinds remaining, it's now very much worth considering its shares, especially if you like the idea of buying at a bargain.
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Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends SNDL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
