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S&P Futures Tick Higher Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales Data and FOMC Meeting
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24)are trending up +0.30% this morning as investors geared up for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting while also awaiting a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, with particular attentionon the retail sales report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Intel (INTC) advanced over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on all three major Wall Street averages after Bloomberg News reported that the chipmaker had officially qualified for up to $3.5 billion in federal grants to make semiconductors for the Pentagon. Also, Oracle (ORCL) climbed more than +5% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $210. In addition, Charles Schwab (SCHW) gained over +2% after the online brokerage reported that new brokerage accounts in August increased +4% y/y to 324,000 and said it anticipates Q3 revenue to climb by up to 3% compared to Q2. On the bearish side, Apple (AAPL) fell more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after a TF International Securities analyst said that demand for the company’s iPhone 16 Pro series was lower than expected. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Arm (ARM) slumping over -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Micron Technology (MU) sliding more than -4%.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the NY Empire State manufacturing index rose to a 2-1/3 year high of 11.50 in September, stronger than expectations of -4.10.
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. Fed officials are widely anticipated to lower interest rates for the first time in four years, with anxious investors discussing whether policymakers will consider a quarter-point cut sufficient for an economy showing signs of slowing or whether they will decide on a half-point reduction instead. Investor attention will also be on the central bank’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 33.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 67.0% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that August Retail Sales will stand at -0.2% m/m, compared to the July figure of +1.0% m/m.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.4% m/m in July. Economists foresee the August figure to be +0.2% m/m.
U.S. Industrial Production data will be reported today as well. Economists forecast this figure to come in at +0.2% m/m in August, compared to -0.6% m/m in July.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.613%, down -0.31%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.62% this morning, recovering losses from the previous session. Retail and bank stocks led the gains on Tuesday. The ZEW Economic Research Institute reported on Tuesday that German investor sentiment deteriorated more than anticipated in September as the evaluation of the economic situation continued to decline. Meanwhile, market participants continue to await major central bank decisions this week, while U.S. economic data later in the day, including retail sales, could help clarify whether the Fed will implement a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut or opt for a smaller 25 basis point rate cut. Remarks from European Central Bank supervisor Claudia Buch and board members Elizabeth McCaul and Frank Elderson, due later today, will also capture investors’ attention. In corporate news, Kingfisher Plc (KGF.LN) climbed over +6% after the European home improvement retailer raised the lower end of its profit guidance for the full year. Also, Barry Callebaut Ag (BARN.Z.IX) gained more than +6% after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight from Underweight.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment and the Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indexes were released today.
The German September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has been reported at 3.6, weaker than expectations of 17.1.
Eurozone September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index arrived at 9.3, weaker than expectations of 16.3.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.03%, while mainland Chinese markets were closed for a holiday.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen on Wednesday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today as trading resumed after a long weekend, with investors looking ahead to decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Japan later this week. Technology-related stocks lost ground on Tuesday. Those moves occurred as major U.S. tech stocks faced pressure overnight, with Apple leading the decline amid worries about iPhone 16 sales. Investors also adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Friday, where it is anticipated to keep rates unchanged but signal upcoming interest rate hikes and underscore the economy’s progress in maintaining inflation around its 2% target. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated Tuesday that the nation’s economy is anticipated to continue its mild recovery, supported by rising wages and increased capital expenditures. “Corporate performance and their financial conditions remain generally sound,” Suzuki said. In other news, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the U.S. and Japan are nearing a deal to restrict technology exports to China’s semiconductor industry, despite concerns in Tokyo about potential retaliation from Beijing against Japanese firms. In corporate news, Eternal Hospitality surged over +15% after reporting a 245.2% increase in attributable profit to 2.13 billion yen for the fiscal year ending July 31st. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.50% to 27.81.
The Japanese July Tertiary Industry Activity Index rose +1.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Intel (INTC) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker announced a multibillion-dollar agreement to make custom artificial intelligence chips for Amazon’s cloud computing division while also revealing plans to turn its Intel Foundry into a separate subsidiary.
Microsoft (MSFT) rose more than +1% in pre-market trading after the software company raised its quarterly dividend by 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock buyback program.
Shopify (SHOP) gained about +2% in pre-market trading after Redburn Atlantic upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $99 price target.
SolarEdge (SEDG) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $17.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - September 17th
Ferguson (FERG).
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On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
