The Western Pacific Warm Pool: Why La Niña has been delayed and its effect on agricultural commodities

(ZWZ24)(KEH25)(WEAT)(ZCZ24)(CORN)(KCH25)(CCH25)(SBH)(CANE) 

“The Western Pacific Warm Pool: Why La Niña has been delayed and its effect on agricultural commodities”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter 

• Weekend Report: November 1-3, 2024

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While I do believe strongly that CO2, methane, etc. have contributed to record warm global oceans and climate extremes, there is some evidence that underwater volcanoes (such as Tonga in 2022) have helped maintain extensive warming as the world’s largest heat engine:    T h e    W e s t e r n    P a c i f i c    W a r m    P o o l 

My video addresses this phenomenon and how its consequences could affect these commodity markets:

• Grains are focusing, not only on the stronger dollar and whether some improvement in post U.S. harvest corn and demand rebounds, but also on South American weather.
• Wheat,on the other hand, is very sensitive to weather conditions in Russia and the Plains drought regions. There is great news coming for Plains wheat farmers ahead of dormancy (tons of rain the next 10 days).
• While global crops for sugar could potentially be huge, worries over previous drought damage to Brazil's sugar cane and a return to wet weather delaying the harvest has created another short term spike in sugar prices. Neverthless, El Niño's neutral phase should be resulting in decent world crops and a potential surplus in global sugar production in 2025.
• Coffee, I'm sad to say… is confusing. What’s more important? The drought easing for Brazil's coffee or previous historic dryness that will still lower the coffee crop? Longer term at these prices, I have various option strategies on in WeatherWealth for my subscribers based on a slightly bearish outlook. Technical selling occurred on Friday as more big rains hit Brazil.
• The cocoa market has rallied again due to severe heavy rains that once again are causing west African disease issues and harvest delays to the main crop harvest.

My video above also discusses why La Niña has been delayed and its potential longer term impacts on commodities.

Only if “you have not done so already!!” Download a free 2 week Trial period to WeatherWealth or a “past FREE issue” and how we called early the easing of Brazil's drought and its impact on commodities.

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Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.