If you want to get a good value when you invest in big pharma, it's necessary to take a look at quality companies that are going through a rough patch. Given the long product development times in the industry, with most drugs taking seven years or more to launch after entering clinical trials, periods of uncertainty can potentially last a good while.
But good things tend to come to those who can wait. With that in mind, let's examine two pharma stocks that are incredibly cheap and which are worth buying right now, assuming you are willing to patiently let their long-term strategic plans unfold over the coming years.
1. Pfizer
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is a pharmaceutical stock that needs no introduction -- or perhaps it's more accurate to say that it needed no introduction during its recent heyday of selling coronavirus vaccines and antivirals, which is over.
In 2022, it brought in more than $100 billion in revenue from sales of those anti-coronavirus medicines. Today, Pfizer looks like it's struggling, even though its extensive pipeline with 33 late-stage clinical programs, recent major acquisitions, and ambitious plans for expanding through 2030 are potentially powerful drivers of its future growth. Total returns from its stock has fallen 20% over the last three years. Last year, it marked a couple of quarters where it reported operating losses instead of profits, while its trailing-12-month revenue fell to $55 billion.
There are a couple of valuation factors supporting the idea that Pfizer's stock is undervalued, starting with its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3. Its price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio is 34, which compares favorably to other big pharma players like Novo Nordisk that are starting to look a little bit frothy, with P/FCF multiples near 55.
Brighter days are ahead for Pfizer, which supports the idea of buying its stock at its current valuation.
It's implementing a manufacturing cost reduction campaign to save as much as $1.5 billion in expenses by the start of 2028, on top of another initiative aiming to reduce expenses by $4 billion by the end of this year. Management is signaling that in the near future, it'll be hitting the gas on both reinvestment in internal research and development (R&D) activities as well as returning capital to shareholders.
And that'll likely occur around the same time as its newly acquired oncology drug business is launching and starting to drive growth, which could be a potent cocktail for the value of its stock to say the least.
2. Merck
Much like Pfizer, Merck (NYSE: MRK) has had a couple of unprofitable quarters on an operational basis recently, though it also has more than 30 programs in phase 3 clinical trials, at least some of which will yield it more revenue over the next few years.
More importantly than its recent hiccups, however, is the looming patent expiry of its blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda, which lapses in 2028. Sales of Keytruda brought in more than $7 billion out of the pharma's total haul of around $16 billion in the second quarter, so it's a major pillar supporting the top line. While there are a handful of programs pertaining to expanding the approved indications of the drug, which will likely keep earnings growing for a long time to come, the uncertainty of how Merck will continue to grow rather than merely tread water after generics steal its market share with Keytruda is doubtlessly a factor keeping its valuation down.
Merck's P/S multiple is roughly 4, and its P/FCF is 21. That makes its valuation a bit pricier than Pfizer's per dollar of revenue, but significantly cheaper per dollar of free cash flow. In other words, it's cheap, but not so cheap that you'd find it neglected in the bargain bin.
Investment in R&D continues to be the top priority for the company's capital allocation, followed by capital expenditure and dividends paid. Share repurchases are the very bottom of the priority list, which could be an ancillary reason why many investors are avoiding the stock despite its low valuation, Still, it doesn't make sense for investors to bet against the ongoing output of Merck's pipeline when management is explicitly saying that its dollars are going to keep going toward accelerating its R&D activity rather than curtailing it.
The only reason I think why the market's been playing safe is because there isn't yet a clear, long-term revenue stream that will replace Keytruda. However, with a solid investment in R&D, I also think Merck is perfectly capable of eventually bringing multiple drug candidates to the market that can not just replace its existing portfolio of medicines, but will far exceed expectations.
The business is also spending big to acquire promising programs from biotechs. On Oct. 1, it closed a deal worth $750 million to buy an early clinical-stage asset that could treat both relapsed or refractory non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), as well as relapsed or refractory B-cell acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL). And with over $11 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments on hand, it has plenty of dry powder to hunt for promising growth opportunities.
So take advantage of this stock's pricing while it's cheap, because it probably won't be this inexpensive for much longer.
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Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck and Pfizer. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
