IonQ(NYSE: IONQ) has gone a wild ride since it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) three years ago. The quantum computing company's stock started trading at $10.60 on its first day, nearly tripled to a record high of $31 a month later, but dropped to the single digits earlier this year.
Today, IonQ's stock trades at about $17. The bullish argument is that it will continue to increase its quantum computing power, lock in more government contracts, and successfully shrink the physical width of its quantum processing units (QPUs) from a few feet to just a few inches with its proprietary "trapped ion" technology.
The bearish view is that IonQ is exaggerating its miniaturization capabilities, obfuscates its progress with proprietary metrics to avoid direct comparisons to other quantum computing companies, and even relies on third-party quantum computing hardware to process some of its cloud-based services. The unexpected departure of its chief scientist Chris Monroe, who had been responsible for developing its trapped ion technologies, raises even more red flags.
Image source: Getty Images.
With a market cap of $3.6 billion, IonQ is already priced for perfection at 25 times its estimated sales for 2026. So if IonQ fails to live up to the market's lofty expectations, its valuations could collapse over the next two years. During that time, two smaller but speculative stocks -- Archer Aviation(NYSE: ACHR) and Intuitive Machines(NASDAQ: LUNR) -- might grow their businesses at faster rates, command higher valuations, and eclipse IonQ's market cap.
Archer Aviation
Archer Aviation produces electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft which can carry a single pilot and four passengers. They have a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour and a range of up to 100 miles, and they're cheaper, quieter, faster, and easier to land in urban areas than helicopters.
Archer only delivered its first Midnight eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force earlier this year, but it plans to ramp up its production to 10 aircraft in 2025, 48 aircraft in 2026, 252 aircraft in 2027, and 650 aircraft in 2028. United Airlines has already placed a long-term order for 200 of those aircraft in early 2021, and the automaker Stellantis chose Archer as the contract manufacturer for its own eVTOL aircraft this year.
Analysts expect Archer's annual revenue to rise from less than $2 million this year to $190 million in 2026. With a market cap of $1.1 billion, Archer trades at just 6 times its estimated sales of 2026 -- and its top line could keep growing through the end of the decade. According to Fact.MR, the global eVTOL aircraft market could expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.5% from 2024 to 2034 as more companies replace their helicopters and expand their electric air taxi services.
If Archer continues to ramp up its production, investors will likely pay a higher premium for its volatile stock -- and its market cap might eclipse IonQ's over the next two years.
Intuitive Machines
Intuitive Machines develops lunar landing and exploration vehicles for NASA. It originally planned to land its Nova-C lander on the moon back in 2021, but that long-awaited launch was repeatedly delayed. NASA finally achieved that launch and landed the Nova-C on the moon this February, marking its first successful U.S. moon landing since 1972.
Following that successful mission, NASA awarded Intuitive with two new contracts: a long-term lunar terrain vehicle (LTV) contract in April and an exclusive five-year near-space network (NSN) contract worth up to $4.8 billion in September. It's also offering "rideshare" services for clients which want to send their payloads to the moon.
Analysts expect Intuitive's revenue to soar 180% to $223 million in 2024 and more than double to $480 million in 2026. But with a market cap of $503 million, Intuitive trades at just 2 times this year's sales and about 1 times its 2026 sales.
If Intuitive can stick to its long-term roadmap, ramp up its production, and secure more NASA and ride-sharing contracts, it could attract a much higher valuation. If it trades at 10 times its forward sales by the end of 2025, it could be worth $4.8 billion. If IonQ doesn't scale up its quantum computing business by then, it could be worth a lot less than Intuitive.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
