Tellurian(NYSEMKT: TELL) holds tremendous promise. The company is developing the Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. It could really move the needle in the future.
However, the natural gas company doesn't have the financial resources to fund that project on its own, which makes it very risky. Because of that, investors should forget about Tellurian and consider Cheniere Energy(NYSEMKT: LNG) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) instead. Unlike Tellurian, they don't have potential roadblocks that could stop their LNG-fueled growth.
An extremely risky bet
Tellurian has already started construction on the first phase of its Driftwood LNG project. The company aims to build two plants with the capacity to produce 11 million tonnes of LNG per year. The project's first phase has an estimated cost of $14.5 billion.
That's a lot more than Tellurian can handle on its own. The company ended the third quarter with $1.3 billion of total assets, including $59.3 million of cash and equivalents. Meanwhile, its existing natural gas production operations aren't consistently profitable.
Tellurian is making a massive bet that it can find strategic partners to help it fund its Driftwood development. It's seeking partners to invest 55% of the equity needed to fund the project while also agreeing to take a large portion of its LNG production capacity. Tellurian expects other funding sources, including bank debt and a $1 billion sale-leaseback on the land supporting Driftwood, to help bridge the remaining gap. The problem is that Tellurian hasn't found a strategic partner yet. As a result, there's a significant risk that it won't finish the project, which could cause its shares to become worthless.
A growing LNG leader
Cheniere Energy is currently the country's largest producer and exporter of LNG. It has developed two LNG facilities (Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi) with about 45 million tonnes of LNG capacity per year. It has been using the cash flows produced by those two facilities to repay debt, fund its continued expansion, and return money to shareholders.
The company currently has more than 10 million tonnes of capacity under construction. It's building Corpus Christi Stage 3 and hopes to complete its first LNG production train by the end of this year. These projects will increase its LNG capacity and its cash flow.
Cheniere is returning a growing share of its free cash flow to shareholders. It boosted its dividend by 10% during the third quarter. It also repurchased $1.1 billion of its stock during the first nine months of last year while repaying a similar amount of debt. Cheniere's increasing cash returns and improving balance sheet should grow value for investors over the long term.
LNG is a big part of Exxon's growth strategy
Exxon is a global LNG leader with more than 40 years of experience in the industry. The integrated energy giant uses its LNG capabilities to support its upstream natural gas production business, giving it the flexibility to maximize the value of its gas by selling it into premium markets.
Exxon aims to nearly double its LNG volumes by 2030. It's developing several projects around the world, including Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and Golden Pass LNG in the U.S. It also agreed to invest in the North Field East project in Qatar.
LNG is one of Exxon's four growth pillars (along with the Permian Basin, Guyana, and Brazil). The company is investing about 70% of its upstream capital into those areas, which should supply more than half its production volumes by 2027. That quartet will help fuel $14 billion in additional earnings and cash flow for Exxon over the next four years, giving it more money to return to shareholders through a growing dividend and meaningful repurchase program. That could fuel strong total returns for its shareholders.
Invest in companies with more visible LNG-fueled upside
Tellurian is making a massive bet that it can build its Driftwood LNG project. If it can find the necessary partners to support and fund the project, its stock could be a big winner. However, if it can't, it could go bust.
That makes it too risky for most investors. Therefore, they should forget about Tellurian and consider Cheniere or ExxonMobil instead. LNG has fueled their growth over the years, and it isn't likely to stop anytime soon. That makes them much safer bets for investors who want to cash in on the growth ahead in the LNG sector.
Should you invest $1,000 in Tellurian right now?
Before you buy stock in Tellurian, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Tellurian wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than tripled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.
*Stock Advisor returns as of January 22, 2024
Matthew DiLallo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
