Behemoth package carrier United Parcel Service(NYSE: UPS) will release Q3 earnings on Oct. 24, which should be noteworthy. Rival FedEx(NYSE: FDX)disappointed the market recently with its first-quarter 2025 earnings report amid management talk of weakening business-to-business (B2B) demand, pressure on domestic deliveries, and customers shifting to lower-priced alternatives.
Let's see what this could all mean for UPS and its shareholders.
What investors can expect from UPS
It's never good when a key rival reports such conditions, and it's worse that FedEx cut its 2025 guidance just one quarter after initiating it. So UPS investors are rightly cautious going into the earnings report.
With UPS already lowering its guidance in its July earnings call, will it do so again, or is the bad news already implied in its existing guidance and possibly its share price, too?
The critical number to follow with UPS
A reiteration of full-year guidance should lift the stock, and at least one Wall Street analyst believes UPS has a pathway to reaching its full-year earnings guidance. While it's tough to know what the transportation company will report and guide toward, investors can keep track of one key metric: its domestic package average revenue per piece.
Data source: UPS presentation, chart by author.
As FedEx reported for its business, UPS is seeing a shift toward lower-yielding deliveries, but UPS management expects delivery volumes to keep growing in the third quarter. As such, it's reasonable to expect U.S. domestic package year-over-year volume growth, but where will its average revenue per piece be?
The debate over UPS stock
CEO Carol Tome argued in the July conference call that UPS had "new e-commerce entrants into the United States. And their volume, well, it's exploded. It was certainly more than we anticipated." Given that the "exploding" deliveries tended to be lower yielding, revenue per piece was pressured in the second quarter.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, a doubter might argue that UPS only hit its volume growth target because it took on lower-margin deliveries. This is a matter for debate likely to continue, but the average revenue per piece number from the upcoming report should throw a lot of color on the company's results.
Should you invest $1,000 in United Parcel Service right now?
Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $845,679!*
Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. TheStock Advisorservice has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.
*Stock Advisor returns as of October 14, 2024
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends FedEx. The Motley Fool recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
