Freeport-McMoRan's (NYSE: FCX) stock price has risen about 35% over the past year. That's a meaningful move for a large mining company. The top publicly traded copper producer has benefited from improved pricing and strong demand, especially in the U.S.
With shares already up a lot in the past year, many investors might be wondering whether it's too late to buy the copper stock. Here's a look at whether it's still worth buying.
The outlook for copper
Like any other commodity, copper demand and pricing ebb and flow based on market fundamentals. They have been reasonably good over the past year. Demand has been solid, and inventories have been relatively low, which has pushed copper prices higher. It reached a peak of nearly $5.00 per pound earlier this year.
However, while U.S. copper demand remains strong, weakness in the property sector and economic uncertainty in China have increased inventory levels and weighed on copper prices in recent months.
While there has been some near-term weakness in the copper market this year, the medium- and long-term outlooks for the metal are very bright. Demand for copper is accelerating, driven by trends like decarbonization, electrification, digitalization, and connectivity. Because copper is a superior metal for conducting electricity, it's playing a vital role in the electrification trend. Meanwhile, supplies for copper remain limited because mining companieshaven't foundtoo many major new copper deposits in recent years.
According to a forecast by mining giant BHP Group, global copper demand will accelerate in the coming years. After rising at a 1.9% annual rate over the past decade and a half, demand for the metalis on track to grow at an accelerated 2.6% annual clip through 2035. Meanwhile, BHP expects the overall global demand for copper to increase by around 70% by 2050.
With supplies limited due to the age of existing mines, companies with copper expansion projects should prosper in the coming years.
Digging into Freeport-McMoRan's growth potential
Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest producers of copper, having produced 4.1 billion pounds last year. It also produced 1.7 million ounces of gold and 81 million pounds of molybdenum.
The company has extensive visibility into its ability to expand its copper output in the future. It sees its copper sales rising to 4.3 million pounds by 2026, driven by investments to improve its copper leaching methods (i.e., a process to extract copper from ore by dissolving it using a chemical solution).
It's also working on other new leaching technologies, which could increase its output by another 100 million-200 million pounds by 2026. Further innovations could boost its overall production by 800 million pounds over the next three to five years. It's investing more than $1 billion in these high-return leaching projects.
On top of that, Freeport-McMoRan has a growing list of copper expansion projects across its portfolio. For example, it's exploring a $3.5 billion project that could increase the production of its Bagdad mine in Arizona by an incremental 200 million to 250 million pounds per year in 2029.
The company is also reviewing a potential $7.5 billion expansion of its Al Abra mine in Chile and a $4 billion project in Indonesia that could start production in the next decade. Additionally, it's developing an estimate for a project to expand its Lone Star mine in Arizona. These projects could add over 1.5 billion pounds of annual copper production capacity in the future.
Freeport-McMoRan is in an excellent position to fund future copper expansion opportunities. The company ended the second quarter with only $300 million of net debt. That's down more than $3 billion from the middle of 2021 and well below its $3 billion-$4 billion threshold.
The company's strong balance sheet enables it to return half its free cash flow to shareholders through its base dividend, variable dividend payments, and share repurchases. With its free cash flow likely to grow in the future, Freeport will have more cash to return to shareholders.
A buy for those taking the long-term view
Copper prices will likely continue fluctuating in the near term, which could cause Freeport's stock price to be volatile. However, the long-term outlook for copper is very bright. Meanwhile, Freeport is in a strong position to capitalize on that growth, given its visible expansion opportunities and strong financial profile. Because of that, it still looks like an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking to cash in on the long-term growth in copper demand.
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Matt DiLallo has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
