Shares of restaurant chain Cracker Barrel(NASDAQ: CBRL) continued their slide in June by dropping 13.6%, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The company closed out May by reporting lackluster financial results, which resulted in plenty of analyst downgrades. And with nothing happening in June to improve the outlook, the stock continued drifting lower throughout the month.
For perspective on how bad things are for shareholders, Cracker Barrel stock trades below $40 per share as of this writing. The last time it was this low was in late 2011 -- nearly 13 years ago. Over the past decade, the chain has opened new locations and grown revenue. But in its fiscal third quarter of 2024, the period that ended on April 26, it posted a net loss of $9 million, which is a problem for a business this mature.
Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett lowered his price target for Cracker Barrel stock on May 31 and called it a "show me" story, according to Investing.com. In other words, Cracker Barrel has shared a turnaround plan. Almost all struggling companies do. But Bartlett believes it should demonstrate progress before investors can believe it.
Considering Cracker Barrel didn't have anything to show investors during June, it's not surprising to see shares continue to slide.
So what is the plan?
Cracker Barrel hired new CEO Julie Masino within the past year, and she has a plan to revitalize the brand. Masino believes the brand has lost some relevance. And that belief is supported by the company's 1.5% drop in Q3 same-store sales. Fewer people are eating in its restaurants.
Masino's plan includes remodeling restaurants and updating the menu. The idea is that by freshening up the look of its brand and by driving excitement for new menu items, Cracker Barrel will win back diners who have started eating elsewhere.
Will it work?
As a value investor at heart, I find Cracker Barrel stock extremely tempting at 13-year lows. However, I agree with Bartlett in this case: I'd like to see tangible progress before buying into the turnaround.
The plan has promise. Masino has mentioned that the menu update, for example, isn't only to excite investors. There's also a labor component. Some menu items are simply too labor intensive. By replacing them with easier-to-make dishes, Cracker Barrel can boost its profit margin. And looking at the chart over the past five years, we can see that the company's margin is well off of its highs and could definitely use a boost.
CBRL Gross Profit Margin data by YCharts
There is a cost to all of this. Cracker Barrel plans up to $700 million in capital expenditures over the next three years to freshen its look. That's enormous. And it will need to be tastefully done. After all, it does still have some loyal customers, and it needs to be careful that the changes don't affect their loyalty.
Considering the cost and time involved, I'm happy to wait and see with Cracker Barrel stock.
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Jon Quast has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
