Stocks Rise Before the Open as Investor Focus Turns to U.S. Economic Data

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24)are up +0.27%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.22% this morning as market participants shrugged off Nvidia’s underwhelming sales forecast and looked ahead to a raft of U.S. economic data.

Nvidia (NVDA) fell over -2% in pre-market trading as an underwhelming Q3 sales forecast as well as issues in the production of its highly anticipated Blackwell chips overshadowed strong Q2 results and a $50 billion share buyback program.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended lower. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plummeted over -19% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the AI server maker said it would delay filing its annual financial disclosures. Also, chip stocks slumped, with Arm (ARM) falling more than -4% and Micron Technology (MU) sliding over -3%. In addition, Foot Locker (FL) plunged more than -10% after lowering its FY24 gross margin forecast. On the bullish side, Chewy (CHWY) surged over +11% after the online retailer of pet products reported stronger-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and lifted its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance. Also, Box (BOX) climbed more than +10% after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and boosted its FY25 guidance.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated Wednesday that it “may be time” to lower rates, but he is still waiting for more data to justify cutting interest rates next month. “I don’t want us to be in a situation where we cut and then we have to raise rates again. So, if I’m going to err on one side, it’s going to be waiting longer just to make sure that we don’t have that up and down,” Bostic said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 63.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 36.5% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Dell Technologies (DELL), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Dollar General (DG), Best Buy (BBY), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Gap (GAP) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

On the economic data front, all eyes are on the Commerce Department’s second estimate of gross domestic product, due later in the day. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP will stand at +2.8% q/q in the second quarter, compared to the first-quarter figure of +1.4% q/q.

Also, investors will focus on U.S. Pending Home Sales data, which came in at +4.8% m/m in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be +0.2% m/m.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported today. Economists predict this figure will hold steady at 232K, consistent with last week’s number.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories preliminary data will come in today as well. Economists expect July’s figure to be +0.3% m/m, compared to +0.2% m/m in June.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.824%, down -0.49%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.49% this morning as investors shrugged off Nvidia’s disappointing Q3 sales forecast and awaited remarks from a European Central Bank official as well as inflation figures from Europe’s largest economy later in the day. Technology stocks led the gains on Thursday. Automobile stocks also gained ground as EU passenger car registrations increased by 0.2% year-over-year to 852,051 units in July. Preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute released Thursday indicated that Spain’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.2% in August from 2.8% in July. Separately, a survey released by the European Commission showed that economic confidence in the Eurozone increased in August, despite continuing weak sentiment among households in the region. Meanwhile, investor focus will be on remarks from ECB chief economist Philip Lane and preliminary inflation data from Germany for August later in the session. In corporate news, Delivery Hero Se (DHER.D.DX) climbed over +6% after reporting stronger-than-anticipated growth in its Q2 gross merchandise value.

Spain’s CPI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Business and Consumer Survey, and Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence data were released today.

The Spanish August CPI has been reported at 0.0% m/m and +2.2% y/y, better than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y.

Eurozone August Business and Consumer Survey came in at 96.6, stronger than expectations of 95.8.

Eurozone August Consumer Confidence arrived at -13.5, weaker than expectations of -13.4.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.50% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.02%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, hitting its lowest level in nearly seven months as sentiment remained dampened by concerns over the country’s economic outlook. Technology and bank stocks led the declines on Thursday. Adding to the negative sentiment, UBS Group AG on Wednesday lowered its growth forecast for China for this year and the next, attributing the revision to a more severe-than-expected property market slump. The Swiss bank now projects China’s gross domestic product to grow by 4.6% this year, down from a previous forecast of 4.9%. For 2025, UBS anticipates growth at 4%, a reduction from the earlier estimate of 4.6%. “While real exports have been stronger than expected, the implementation of property easing measures has been slow, and the impact limited,” UBS economists said in a note. They also lowered their forecasts for property sales and new construction starts for both 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the release of official Chinese PMI figures for August, set for Saturday, to obtain further insights into the state of the world’s second-largest economy. In corporate news, Li Auto Inc. plunged over -9% in Hong Kong after the EV maker reported weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings. At the same time, Meituan surged more than +12% after the delivery service provider posted upbeat Q2 results and unveiled a $1 billion buyback.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed just below the flatline today. Gains in healthcare and utility stocks helped offset losses in consumer cyclical and real estate stocks on Thursday. Data released on Thursday indicated that Japan’s consumer confidence index stayed the same in August as the previous month, marking the highest reading since April. Meanwhile, investors continued to evaluate the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy trajectory after BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stated on Wednesday that the central bank would adjust its monetary easing if the forecasts for economic activity and prices materialize. In corporate news, Nidec slid more than -3% after AI server manufacturer Super Micro Computer, with which it is developing water-cooling modules for servers, delayed the filing of its annual report. Investors are now looking ahead to the release of July industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures, along with Tokyo’s August inflation data, due on Friday, to help shape the nation’s economic and interest rate outlook. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +1.02% to 22.70.

The Japanese August Household Confidence stood at 36.7, weaker than expectations of 36.9.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) fell over -2% in pre-market trading as an underwhelming Q3 sales forecast as well as issues in the production of its highly anticipated Blackwell chips overshadowed strong Q2 results and a $50 billion share buyback program.

Salesforce (CRM) gained more than +4% in pre-market trading after the cloud computing giant posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year EPS guidance.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) soared about +22% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 revenue guidance.

HP Inc. (HPQ) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 adjusted EPS.

Marriott (MAR) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after Bernstein upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $262.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - August 29th

Dell Tech (DELL), Marvell (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Canadian Imperial Bank (CM), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Dollar General (DG), Brown Forman A (BFa), Best Buy (BBY), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Burlington Stores (BURL), MongoDB (MDB), Campbell Soup (CPB), Birkenstock Holding ltd (BIRK), Elastic (ESTC), Gap (GAP), Hashicorp (HCP), Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), GMS Inc (GMS), Polestar Automotive Holding A (PSNY), Photronics (PLAB), Amark Preci (AMRK), Malibu Boats Inc (MBUU), Cool Company Oy (CLCO).

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