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Aurora Cannabis Had a Strong Q1, but Investors Should Expect a Slowdown in Future Quarters

Motley Fool - Fri Aug 16, 6:30AM CDT

Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ: ACB) achieved positive free cash flow in its most recent quarter. And the business's managers think it can continue doing so. On top of that, it also generated double-digit percentage revenue growth.

That's a lot of good news for Aurora in one quarter, and it's little wonder the stock has been rallying since then.

But before you think about putting money into the stock, it's worth taking a closer look at the numbers. The company's results were strong this past quarter, however, that doesn't mean it's smooth sailing from here on out.

In fact, the cannabis company could even see its sales growth slow in upcoming quarters. Although it might seem like a safer buy right now, here's what you need to consider before investing.

The company's plant propagation business boosted Aurora's results

Aurora's net revenue totaled 83.4 million Canadian dollars ($60.7 million) for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on June 30. It was a 12% increase from the same period last year. A big reason for the increase was due to its plant propagation revenue, which totaled CA$23.1 million and grew by 16% year over year. Its medical marijuana business grew by 13% while its consumer cannabis sales declined by 10%.

Over the years, Aurora has been shifting away from the consumer market and it has been focusing on medical marijuana, where margins are normally much wider. It also acquired a controlling interest in the plant propagation business Bevo (one of the largest suppliers of grown flowering and vegetable plants in North America) in 2022 as a way to further diversify its operations and give it another avenue to increase its top line, making it even less reliant on the highly competitive consumer cannabis market.

Aurora's numbers were good in Q1, yet there are still risks with the business

Although it was a good quarter, investors should brace for volatility. That's because the plant propagation business is largely seasonal. The bulk of its revenue and earnings comes in the first half of the year, which means there can be significant volatility on a quarterly basis.

During the back half of the year, Aurora's sales could weaken. They are likely to decline from the plant propagation business, and depending on how strong the economy is, the domestic consumer cannabis segment might also continue to struggle, especially as Aurora prioritizes the medical market.

And the company warns that although it generated positive free cash flow (what's left of cash flow after capital spending) of CA$6.5 million in the latest quarter, there will be some higher-than-normal outflows of cash during the current quarter due to one-time cash payments. Free cash flow can fluctuate due to the timing of when receivables are collected and when the company makes payments; investors shouldn't be surprised if free cash flow dips back into the negative later this year.

Another issue I see is that while its revenue rose, the company's gross profit, excluding changes in fair value on its biological assets, totaled just CA$30.1 million this past quarter and the company spent more on sales, marketing, and general and administration costs (CA$36.5 million). The business still hasn't proved that its operations are sustainable and that it can be profitable without relying on gains in fair value.

Is Aurora Cannabis stock a buy?

Aurora Cannabis has been doing fairly well this year, with its shares up more than 40% thus far. The pot stock trades below its book value, and its price-to-sales multiple is just 1.9. Investors who buy the stock are getting it at a bit of a discount right now.

But this is still a risky investment.

The company has come a long way in improving its operations in recent years, but the majority of investors will still be better off avoiding Aurora. It doesn't make for an attractive growth stock given the inconsistency in its top line, and its fundamentals aren't strong enough to be a tenable option for many value investors, either.

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David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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