Canada’s main stock index closed at its highest in over three weeks on Monday, boosted by energy stocks and as investors renewed bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.
U.S. stock indexes also ended higher, their third straight session of advances, although they underperformed the S&P/TSX composite index, which closed up 312.06 points, or 1.42%, at 22,259.47.
The TSX materials sector jumped 1.6%, with miners like Capstone Copper and New Gold gaining about 6%, tracking higher prices of precious metals.
Energy shares followed with a 1.7% rise as oil prices climbed earlier in the session after Saudi Arabia hiked June crude prices and as narrowing prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal renewed fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East.
“Rate cut bets, the strong corporate earnings, the firming of oil price, a little relief rally in TD Bank after concerns last week, strong commodity pricing... all those things put together... the TSX is playing catch-up,” said Barry Schwartz, a portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services.
Shares of Canada’s second largest bank, TD Bank, fell nearly 8% last week after the lender said it had set aside $450 million for potential fines in relation to the U.S. Justice Department’s probe over an anti-money laundering probe. They closed up 0.4% on Monday.
“I’d like to see a serious action plan laid out by management on how they’re going to regain the mojo for investors going forward,” Schwartz said on TD Bank.
Expectations for rate cuts by the U.S. central bank have been tempered as the year has progressed, as inflation has proven stickier, and some investors had begun to worry they might not materialize at all, sending markets lower in April.
However, data on Friday showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April, taking pressure off the U.S. central bank to keep rates higher for longer. Coupled with earnings season in corporate America surprising to the upside, this gave equity investors renewed positive moment in recent sessions.
After the Fed last week signaled it was leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs, but wanted to gain “greater confidence” that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates, policymakers reiterated that message on Monday.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the current interest rate level should cool the economy enough to return inflation to the central bank’s 2% target, with the strength of the job market giving officials time to wait.
Barkin, a voter this year on interest rate policy, added that inflation “data whiplash” supported the Fed’s deliberative policy towards interest rates.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said while rate cuts would happen, monetary policy was currently in a very good place.
“The primary thing that the market is trying to reason its way through is inflation and the Federal Reserve,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy & research at Glenmede.
“A lot of the market’s movements have been a reflection of the market really trying to figure out and fine tune the different perspectives on inflation and rates.”
Traders are currently pricing in rate cuts worth 46 basis points from the Fed by the end of 2024, with the first cut expected in September or November, according to LSEG’s rate probability app.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 176.59 points, or 0.46%, to 38,852.27, the S&P 500 gained 52.95 points, or 1.03%, to 5,180.74 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 192.92 points, or 1.19%, to 16,349.25.
The majority of S&P 500 sectors ended in positive territory. The energy index was among the leading gainers, rising in part due to U.S. natural gas futures hitting their highest level in 14 weeks.
Chipmakers broadly gained on Monday, including Arm Holdings , which rose 5.2% ahead of earnings later this week.
Micron Technology increased 4.7% after a report said Baird upgraded the stock, and Advanced Micro Devices and Super Micro Computer gained 3.4% and 6.1%, respectively - recovering ground lost after disappointing earnings from the pair last week.
Paramount Global advanced 3.1% after the media company ended its exclusive negotiations with Skydance Media without a deal, allowing the special committee to entertain other offers from rival bidders.
Tyson Foods fell 5.7% after the meatpacker surpassed Wall Street expectations for second-quarter profit but warned that consumers were under pressure from persistent inflation.
Meanwhile, Spirit Airlines slumped 9.7%, to a record closing low, after reporting a weak revenue outlook for the second quarter.
The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 150 new highs and 54 new lows.
Reuters, Globe staff
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