The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P/TSX Composite Index clung onto gains to close higher on Tuesday, extending recent winning streaks fueled by renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The advances pushed the S&P 500 to a fourth straight higher close, and its best winning run since March. It was the fifth straight gain for both the Dow and TSX.
The benchmark U.S. performances came despite Walt Disney slumping as a surprise profit in its streaming entertainment division was eclipsed by a drop in its traditional TV business and weaker box office.
Despite Disney’s drag, for much of the day the three main U.S. stock indexes had traded at their highest intraday levels in more than three weeks, extending gains after a weaker-than-expected labour market report last week fueled bets that the U.S. central bank will cut rates.
“I think the market is in this little holding pattern until the big data comes next week,” said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Manager Solutions, referring to the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on May 14, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for May 15.
Generally, the Fed and policymakers have been consistent in their message in recent weeks that rate cuts will come but the central bank is going to be cautious in implementing them. That message was repeated on Monday by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams and Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin.
This meant, on a day lacking major data announcements, markets shrugged off comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari that the Fed may need to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to stalled inflation and housing market strength.
Overall, Friday’s U.S. payrolls data and better-than-expected earnings reports have helped soothe investor jitters around sticky inflation and a robust economy that have kept the rates elevated.
Traders are anticipating rate cuts of 46 basis points from the Fed by the end of 2024, according to LSEG’s interest rate probabilities app, with the first pivot to rate cut seen in September and another in December. They were expecting only one cut before the labour report last week.
“The market is far more hypersensitive to the data than the Fed is,” said Natixis’ Melson, adding that “the bar for the Fed to abandon the easing bias is extremely high.”
Money markets are currently pricing in about 65% odds that the Bank of Canada will pivot to lowering interest rates next month, a move that is likely to arrive ahead of the Fed because of recent weakness in the domestic economy.
The TSX ended up 31.15 points, or 0.1%, at 22,290.62. It was the highest closing level for the index in four weeks, when it posted a record high of 22,361.78.
The energy sector added 0.5% and the materials group was up 0.9%. The declining sectors on Tuesday included real estate, which fell 0.7%, and consumer staples, which ended 0.5% lower.
The move toward record highs came ahead of the release this week of earnings from some major companies, such as Suncor Energy Inc., Manulife Financial Corp. and Shopify Inc.
The S&P 500 gained 6.96 points, or 0.13%, to 5,187.70 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 16.69 points, or 0.10%, to 16,332.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 31.99 points, or 0.08%, to 38,884.26.
Megacap stocks Alphabet and Meta Platforms rose 1.9% and 0.6%, respectively, boosting the main indexes.
Nvidia fell 1.7% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple was developing its own chip to run artificial intelligence (AI) software in data centers.
Apple gained 0.4% as it introduced a new chip called the M4, but put the new chip in an iPad Pro model rather than a laptop.
Tesla fell 3.8% after data showed the U.S. automaker sold 62,167 China-made electric vehicles in April, down 18% from a year earlier.
Palantir Technologies tumbled 15.1%, its sharpest one-day decline since May 2022, after the data analytics firm’s annual revenue forecast fell short of analysts’ estimates.
The S&P 500 posted 49 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 155 new highs and 69 new lows.
Reuters, Globe staff
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