The Canadian dollar CADUSD weakened to a 10-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as data showed a deepening downturn in Canada’s services economy and investors weighed ebbing prospects of another 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The loonie was trading 0.3 per cent lower at 1.3540 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.86 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest level since Sept. 23 at 1.3553.
“I’d say that the U.S. dollar is the real story,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. “Maybe the Fed doesn’t cut by 50 basis points in November.”
Investors see a 65 per cent chance the Fed will cut by a quarter of a percentage point next month rather than repeating the half-percentage-point move from September.
The U.S. dollar notched broad-based gains, climbing to a six-week high against a basket of major currencies, as data showed a still-solid American economy.
In contrast, Canada’s services economy deteriorated in September as firms shed jobs and new business dropped to a near four-year low. The headline business activity index in S&P Global Canada services PMI data fell to 46.4 from 47.8 in August.
Still, the Canadian dollar is forecast to strengthen in the coming year as lower borrowing costs bolster economic growth in Canada and increase investor appetite for risk, a Reuters poll found.
The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose for a third straight day on investor concern that a widening Middle East conflict could disrupt oil flows from the region. U.S. crude futures were up 4.5 per cent at $73.28 a barrel.
Canadian government bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was up 5.4 basis points at 3.081, after earlier touching its highest level since Sept. 3 at 3.097 per cent.