The Canadian dollar CADUSD edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose, but the move was limited ahead of U.S. inflation data and a domestic GDP report.
The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3690 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.05 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3677 to 1.3712.
Investors awaited the release on Friday of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, as well as Canadian GDP data for April. Economists forecast Canada’s economy expanding by 0.3%.
The data is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager in the currency group at State Street Global Advisors, adding that the BoC has been clear that “there is room for things to recover and still have steady disinflation.”
Earlier this month, the BoC became the first G7 central bank to ease policy, lowering its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. Investors see a roughly 40% chance of another cut in July.
“The U.S. still has higher rates, stronger growth, a little bit of a safe haven bid,” Hurd said. “The divergence with the Bank of Canada and the Fed … I still think that risks us to break up to 1.40.”
The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose as supply disruption risks from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East helped to counter demand fears. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1% higher at $81.74 a barrel.
Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 1.8 basis points at 3.472% after earlier touching its highest level since June 10 at 3.522%.