A daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Priya Misra, TD’s head of global rates strategy, warned investors about the prospect of bond market outflows,
“The YTD [year-to-date] total return for the Bloomberg US Agg is at -2.1% after a total return of -1.5% for all of 2021. The fixed income underperformance has resulted in outflows from bond mutual funds. Fixed income funds have generally seen strong inflows in recent years. However, the large outflow in the 2013 taper tantrum exacerbated market pressure … Note that TIPS ETFs have also begun to show the largest outflows since COVID … Outflows can extend underperformance and create some spillover to IG spreads as well. We will be closely monitoring FI flows as continued outflows can put further pressure on long end rates and spread products.”
There are many extremely large fixed income ETFs in Canada and the U.S., and further performance losses could create important selling pressure and higher bond yields.
“TD: “Beware the Fixed Income Outflow” – (research excerpt) Twitter
***
BMO chief economist Doug Porter notes that U.S. consumers are switching from goods to services spending,
“A bit overlooked in the latest U.S. income and spending data for December, was that consumer behavior is moving away from last year’s extremes. More specifically, outlays on goods fell for a second month in a row (down 2.6%), after sprinting almost 18% for the year as whole (by far the largest annual increase in more than 60 years of data). On the other side, Americans are gradually ramping up spending on services — after a brutal drop in 2020, they snapped back more than 9% last year, the biggest rise since the late 1980s … As things more fully re-open, it would be little surprise to see this ratio eventually fall all the way back to the pre-pandemic level of roughly 31%. It may take a while to get all the way back, however, as a) there is still a lot of pent-up demand for some items (e.g., vehicles), and b) price gains have been much larger in goods, and may stick”
“BMO: U.S. consumer switching to services” – (research excerpt) Twitter
***
Scotia analyst Mario Saric published his top picks in the REIT sector after a CBRE Group Inc. report on capitalization or ‘cap’ rates [capitalization rate is net operating income divided by the property value],
“CBRE Q4/21 cap rate survey released on Wednesday showed private cap rate compression accelerated a bit, falling 8 bps q/q to 6.02%, the largest drop in 4 years… podium finishes belonged to Industrial (down 26bp vs. 17bp in Q3), a Silver-lining emerged for Seniors Housing (-16bp vs. +1bp), while Apartments finished third (down 10bp vs. 2bp). Retail is showing some promise, with the 5bp of compression (Q3 = 3bp) including 15bp in non-anchored strip; Office is flat. Similar to Q3, falling cap rate markets (45% of total markets surveyed; highest since 2012) far outstripped rising cap rate markets (5%). Montreal and Edmonton were bigger markets with more cap rate compression. We estimate REITs that could be bigger beneficiaries include SMU [Summit Industrial Income REIT] , DIR [Dream Industrial REIT] , GRT [Granite REIT], CSH [Chartwell Retirement Residences], SIA [Sienna Senior Living Inc.] and IIP [Interrent REIT] . Interestingly, SMU, DIR, and IIP have seen sizable implied cap rate expansion since the Q3 update. Bottom-line, with the sector trading at a mid-single-digit discount to NAV, falling cap rates are positive for unit prices in our view. Our Top Growth Picks = BAM, GRT, HOM, IIP, SMU, SVI, TCN; Top Value = AP, BAM, CSH, DIR, ERE, REI; Top Income = APR, CRT, NWH "
“Scotia top picks in REITs” – (research excerpt) Twitter
***
Newsletter: “Rate hikes and slowing growth form an uncomfortable combination for investors” – Globe Investor
Diversion: “Best books by Nobel Prize in literature winners” – Five Books
Tweet of the Day:
Be smart with your money. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. Sign up today.