Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett’s research report The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Investment Universe came out last week but I just got a copy now. It features a host of “must-know stats for investors,” which include
“$255 trillion: value of all global bonds & stocks today, up 2.5x since the 2008 GFC. 6.0x: Wall St (asset prices) 6.0x the size of Main St (GDP), near all-time highs. $313 trillion: size of global debt, now over 3x the value of world GDP. 0: value of global debt with a negative yield, down from $18tn peak in 2020. 100 days: US govt debt currently rising by $1 trillion every 100 days. #1: US accounts for 44% of global government bond market, 65% of global equity market ... 81%: US share of the $19tn market cap of global tech sector. $10.4tn: market cap gain of “Magnificent 7″ stocks in past 18 months … -10.4%: annualized return of China equities past 4 years (worst-performing index). 12.3%: annualized return of Indian equities past 20 years (best-performing index”
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RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft is not bullish on crude prices,
“The window for a fundamentally driven constructive view on the oil complex has been closing. The most common, relatively constructive view is that prices will remain in a tight range around the $80/bbl Brent mark. Conversations to start the summer were surprisingly US -centric but have since evolved to a broader focus on the macroeconomic risks, with the fundamental track record in Asia far enough along that it has become a key talking point for most sectors even outside energy markets. The bearish view is simple, and in the medium term, slowing economic activity, weakness in Asia, and softer refinery margins all don’t bode well for crude prices going into year-end. Uncertainty around the potential timing of weakness reaching more visible fundamental indicators in the Atlantic Basin and richer backwardation, against the backdrop of looming geopolitical risk, has kept investors sidelined”
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The research team at Jefferies presented their most actionable ideas in the case of a Kamala Harris presidential election win, but they did it in a way that requires looking up a lot of stock symbols,
“Restore top individual income tax rate to 39.6 percent on income above $400,000 for single filers and $450,000 for joint filers. [positive for] GHLD, LDI, UWMC; [negative for] ARHS, BC, CHEF, GD, RH, TXT, WSM … Set new rules and penalties to prohibit food and grocery companies from expanding profit margins more than warranted. [negative for] COST, HSY, K, MDLZ, PG, TGT, WMT … Continue antitrust enforcement and reduce hidden fees. [negative for] ADBE, AFRM, AMZN, BAC, BFH, BMY, C, CHEF, CMA, COF, CYH, DFS, EWBC, EZPW, FCFS, FHN, GOOGL, GS, HCA, JPM, K, KR, META, MRK, MS, MSFT, OMF, PFE, PFGC, SYF, SYY, THC, UNH, USFD, WAL, WBS, WFC, ZION” … Use American-made steel, lumber, drywall, concrete, and other products for every federally funded infrastructure [positive for] CLF, HBM CN, IP, NUE, STLD, X; [negative for] HLAG GR, MAERSKB DC, ZIM … Electrify federal fleet and other heavy-duty vehicles, including school buses and transit buses. [positive for] AA, AAL LN, ALB, ALGM, ALLY, ANTO LN, APH, BHP LN, CPAY, FM CN, GLEN LN, LFUS, LUN CN, ON, PCAR, TECK/B, TEL, ULS, VALE, WEX, 1208 HK; [negative for] VSEC”
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Diversion: “Town urges curfew over mosquito-spread disease that kills up to 50 per cent of people” – Ars Technica