Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack sees Canadian real estate equity investors continuing to be “at the whim of macro trends and volatility in bond yields” in 2024.
“We have already seen instability early in the year with trading gains being given back as rates ticked higher after a late 2023 move lower,” he said. “Consensus seems to have settled on the fact that future hikes are unlikely but concerns around the pace of cuts have been reflected in the long end of the curve. Our forecasts are predicated on our Economics & Strategy group outlook, which calls for Canadian 10-year bonds to reach 2.5 per cent by mid-2025 before rebounding to around 3.0 per cent by the end of the year, with that presumably forming a new longer-term range. On the short end they expect an end to the rate cutting to occur in Q1/25 with overnight rates reaching 2.75 per cent. The effects of this won’t be felt universally given debt maturity profiles, hedging and exposure to variable rate debt. While relative to our prior forecast this outlook is a plus, we still expect higher rates than those on maturing debt to trim 2 per cent and 3 per cent from earnings in 2024 and 2025, respectively, across our coverage.”
In a research report released Monday titled Oscillating to a New Normal, Mr. Kornack warned of the impact of the sector by turbulence brought on by elections globally, predicting Canada “won’t escape the collateral damage.”
“Canada is light on elections in 2024 (we just had a slew of provincial and municipal contests with the Federal government likely to survive until 2025), but the world is going to be busy choosing new/incumbent leadership,” he said. “An inherent tug-of-war between populism/nativism and liberalism will be on display with the U.S. election likely to have broader implications on regulatory frameworks, economic growth, international relations (particularly the trajectory of current global conflicts) and global trade/immigration patterns. There are winners and losers here: Canada could be a target of renewed trade protectionism but at the same time benefit from its looser immigration policies (Trump was a boon for Canadian office landlords as tech companies scrambled to take space in a geography that was open to global talent). We won’t avoid political posturing and populist policies entirely but expect these may be more pronounced towards the end of the year as Canada’s election calendar heats up in 2025/2026.”
He also sees 2024 as “the year of the merger,” expecting uncertainty steeming from potential M&A activity, particularly after New York-based Blackstone Inc.’s (BX-N) announcement of its US$3.5-billion acquisition of Tricon Residential iNC. (TCN-T).
“While privatizations of mispriced assets may continue, our thought process was that we may see more in the way of merger activity as cost of capital has been prohibitive to growing portfolios. The REIT universe is small, and options are limited but some logical combinations would be CAR or IIP/KMP, NXR/PRV and DIR/SMU JV,” he said.
Mr. Kornack raised his targets for equities in the sector by an average of 7 per cent after introducing his estimates for fiscal 2025. For the current year, he made modest increases to his estimates to account for lower interest rate forecasts and steady fundamental drivers.
“We get the sense that more people are looking at the sector, but not yet buying,” he said. “Funds flow will likely be linked to the above noted interest rate theme but expect some pre-positioning on this front. Broadly speaking the sector will benefit from a return of generalist and retail capital, which may get flushed out of short-term interest-bearing instruments when the rate cut cycle begins.”
The analyst’s “focus ideas” for 2024 in order of favoured asset classes are:
Canadian Multi-Family: Killam Apartment REIT (KMP.UN-T, “outperform”) to $22 from $20.50. Average: $21.29.
Mr. Kornack: “We have seen a change at the top of our pecking order with Killam and CAP rising for different reasons. Changing rent control dynamics in KMP’s largest market will allow for it to put up similar organic growth to its Ontario-centric peers, while offering a discounted valuation on cap rate and earnings multiple. CAP has pulled back on the recent move higher in rates, providing an opportunity to buy the highest embedded MTM [mark-to-market], with undervalued density prospects and the best trading liquidity. The latter makes it a flow of funds magnet when REITs are in favour”
Industrial: Dream Industrial REIT (DIR.UN-T, “outperform”) to $16.50 from $16. Average: $16.
Mr. Kornack: “: Notwithstanding expected market rent growth flattening, MTM potential is significant and earnings prospects are strong. DIR and GRT top our pecking order with strong top-line performance expected, DIR primarily on capturing below market rent spreads while GRT has leaseup potential, a tailwind from the Graz renewal and a favourable 2025 lease maturity profile.”
Retail: RioCan REIT (REI.UN-T, “outperform”) with a $21 target (unchanged). Average: $21.63.
Mr. Kornack: “Management teams are optimistic on the prospects for stronger leasing spreads as options for tenants decline in the market and replacement costs require much higher economic rents. Our forecasting remains conservative with low single-digit SPNOI growth expected, but if we avoid a deep recession the pricing power pendulum is shifting to the landlords. RioCan and Primaris are the top total return prospects on valuation relative to portfolio quality”
Office: Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T, “outperform”) to $22 from $19. Average: $22.
Mr. Kornack: “:Office fundamentals have yet to positively inflect and while the space has been oversold we think investors will want more certainty on where NOI is heading before jumping in. That said, it is a place we expect some alpha as any relative sentiment shift could take these names higher (or lower) given operational uncertainty. Allied is our top pick on its diversified geographic footprint across urban markets and superior balance sheet positioning.”
Diversified: H&R REIT (HR.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $10.50 from $10. Average: $11.13.
Mr. Kornack: “Within the diversified group, H&R remains our top focus idea, driven by earnings growth exposure to multi-family assets in U.S. markets and industrial development lease-up around the GTA combined with a better balance sheet and limited office maturities. Recent transaction activity was a plus as the REIT disposed of an office property at an attractive cap rate relative to our expectations. While we think H&R should trade at a narrower discount, it may take more time than originally expected to close this gap as the bulk of additional asset sales are on hold until market participants better understand the return environment.”
Cross-Border Housing: Flagship Communities REIT (MHC.U-T), “outperform”) with a US$19.50 target. Average: US$20.31.
Mr. Kornack: “We expect MHC’s operations to hold steady as its affordable housing offer gains traction in a market increasingly concerned about cost savings. Tenancies tend to be sticky, and the REIT has proven that it can push rents given how low these are relative to other housing options. On that front, higher borrowing costs have pushed traditional homeownership further out of reach. With rate expectations approaching a plateau, we could also see more deal activity as prices adjust to a known cost of financing. MHC’s lenders continue to remain open to extending leverage for the asset class, enabling it to thoughtfully pursue accretive acquisitions over the coming year.”
The analysts’ other target changes are:
- Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T, “outperform”) to $82 from $80. Average: $79.
- Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAR.UN-T, “outperform”) to $55.50 from $53.50. Average: $55.77.
- Crombie REIT (CRR.UN-T, “outperform”) to $15 from $14. Average: $15.22.
- Dream Office REIT (D.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $11 from $8.50. Average: $10.31.
- First Capital REIT (FCR.UN-T, “outperform”) to $17 from $15. Average: $16.53.
- Granite REIT (GRT.UN-T, “outperform”) to $87 from $83. Average: $87.85.
- BSR REIT (HOM.U-T, “outperform”) to US$13.25 from US$13. Average: US$15.30.
- InterRent REIT (IIP.UN-T, “outperform”) to $15.25 from $14.50. Average: $14.41.
- Minto Apartment REIT (MI.UN-T, “outperform”) to $19.25 from $17.75. Average: $18.57.
- Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $8.75 from $7.75. Average: $9.28.
- PRO REIT (PRV.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $5.74 from $4.75. Average: $5.92.
- SmartCentres REIT (SRU.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $26 from $24. Average: $26.03.
- Storagevault Canada Inc. (SVI-T, “sector perform”) to $6 from $5. Average: $5.91.
- True North Commercial REIT (TNT.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $8.75 from $8.65. Average: $9.29.
“The most significant moves were in names that have particularly high torque to rates, either because they are functionally limited in their growth prospects but have defensive characteristics, were carrying higher financial leverage or were overly penalized as funds flow moved away from the sector.,” he said. “Names here included AP (up 16 per cent), D (up 29 per cent), PRV (up 21 per cent) and SVI (up 20 per cent).
“We did not make any adjustments to ratings with this outlook and admit that we are heavy on Outperformrated names. This reflects a general high grading of our coverage universe but also a more optimistic outlook on funds flow into the space and valuations relative to financing costs.”
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Expecting a “significant moderation” in its same-store sales trajectory and traffic to “normalize,” Scotia Capital analyst George Doumet downgraded Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” on Monday.
“Over the past six quarters, DOL has posted double-digit SSS, well above its longer term trajectory closer to mid single digits ‚” he said. “For the 1H of the period, the elevated SSS was aided by comping pandemic lock-downs. Over the past couple of quarters, however, a continuation of trade-down trends (given the sustained high level of inflation) and the tailwind from the introduction of $5 price point drove the SSS growth. While we think a healthy part of the recent gains will prove to be sticky, we expect a moderation in the SSS (toward the lower-end of mid-single-digit range).”
“DOL has been able to grow traffic at an impressive rate of 20 per cent on a two-year stack over the past two quarters. A jump in consumables demand was the key driver of traffic growth as DOL benefited from the consumer trade-down and gained share from the grocery and other channels. Furthermore, DOL also managed to grow its TAM by gaining share from general merchandise retailers through strategic choice of offerings and leveraging the $5 price point to offer value in broader categories. These traffic tailwinds could turn into headwinds in the upcoming quarters as a moderation in inflation both in the general merchandise and food level (in addition to a soft-landing view) could potentially stabilize/dampen the strong consumers trade-down trend.”
In a research report released Monday titled Value for Customers, Premium for Investors, Mr. Doumet emphasized the Montreal-based retailer shares have overperformed over the last two years, jumping almost 60 per cent versus a flat TSX.
“This was driven by strong EPS growth (CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 28 per cent vs. historically 17 per cent) resulting from (i) share gains across all categories as inflation bites into consumer budgets, (ii) a jump in traffic (10-per-cent CAGR vs. 1 percent historically) driven by strong demand for consumables, (iii) higher pricing, including the introduction of the $5 price-point and (iv) expanding gross margins driven by lower transport and product costs,” he said. “Returns were also driven by 13-per-cent multiple expansion to 26 times NTM [next 12-month] EPS, 1 standard deviation above its historical average. DOL is yielding 3.6 per cent on our fiscal 2025 estimated FCF, below its historical average and in line with the CAN-10.”
“As much as we don’t like to downgrade compounders, we believe we would almost need a hard landing for the stock to work - as, in our view, we are currently experiencing peak-ish valuation up against a decelerating top (tough comps)/bottom line (stubborn labour inflation) for F25 (and F26). We would recommend investors deploy the proceeds towards other (more value-oriented) discretionary names, especially as the narrative around a softer landing continues to gain traction (i.e., position more risk on).”
Mr. Doumet raised his target for Dollarama shares to $107 from $104, which is the average on the Street.
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National Bank Financial analyst Zachary Evershed expects Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) to see “probable” margin uplift from the gradual growth in the capacity of its scanning and calibration (S&C) business as it continues to invest in its workforce.
“Boyd sees growth in the scanning and calibration (S&C) business to be a longterm driver of margin expansion as it will allow the company to shift sublet work to labour hours, moving from the lowest to the highest margin profile in the business,” he said. “Ongoing investments in Boyd’s S&C platform have positioned the company to accelerate growth, but management has cautioned that since it is a labour-intensive service offering, complete internalization will not be completed in 2024.”
In a report released Monday, Mr. Evershed predicted the Winnipeg-based company’s increasing partnership with Detroit’s Opus IVS, a provider of intelligent vehicle support solutions, is “bound to grow.”
“We note that this depth of scanning practices is only 4-5 years old, and the industry trend is compelling as systems must increasingly be calibrated after repairs, with trends toward scanning before and during repairs as well,” he said.
“Conversations with industry sources lead us to believe the normalization of scanning processes from OEM guidelines to application in shops provides a robust backstop to scanning and calibration penetration in the industry. This, combined with the ever more sophisticated technology requirements in vehicles suffice to justify multi-shop operators such as Boyd rolling out S&C capabilities across their network. We note, however, that scanning and calibrating requires competent and trained personnel (BYD has a similar program to the TDP in place for the S&C business), a sharp headwind as the industry continues to wrestle with a 30,000 technician shortage.”
Introducing his 2025 estimates, Mr. Evershed expects to see “gross margin expansion rolling” through S&C, despite a gradual slowing in labour rate hikes and a “more gradual improvement” in its legacy business.
“With our assumption of 100 locations added through M&A annually, supplemented by excess SSSG [same-store sales growth] in 2022 and 2023 as rate hikes were realized in rapid succession, we expect Boyd should easily exceed its goal of doubling the business by 2025, as our $3.8 billion revenue forecast punches above the targeted $3.4 billion,” he said.
“We believe there may be upside to our SSSG assumptions as wages continue to climb at mid-to-high single digits, which may be associated with continued success in labour rate hikes required as industry technician capacity remains insufficient given the extended backlog of repairable vehicles suggested by elevated length of rental days.”
Reiterating his “sector perform” rating, he raised his target for Boyd shares to $310 from $260. The average target on the Street is $290.86.
“As the stock has enjoyed a sustained run up since late October, we believe much of the potential margin expansion ahead is now priced in,” said Mr. Evershed. “We see a 4.7-per-cent FCF yield at our target, and given the tight return, reiterate our Sector Perform rating.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami sees Snowline Gold Corp.’s (SGD-X) Valley project in the Selwyn Basin of eastern Yukon as “a significant new discovery with tier one potential.”
“We see the potential for up to 10 million ounces to be delineated over time in a bulk-tonnage open-pit scenario,” he said. “Our confidence stems from the remarkably high quality of mineralization: consistent grades across hundreds of meters, composite averages not swayed by outliers (no ‘nugget effect’), negligible impact from grade capping, clean metallurgy with no sulfides and a coherent geometry suitable for low-strip open pit mining with high grades starting from surface.”
Mr. Nizami initiated coverage of Vancouver-based exploration company with an “outperform” recommendation on Monday, seeing it as an “attractive” M&A target for senior producers.
“The potential scale of Valley is of interest to Senior mining companies that are competing for Tier One assets that can add meaningful production scale for a reasonable capex payback and long mine life with exploration upside in low geopolitical risk jurisdictions such as Canada,” he said. “Senior gold producer B2Gold Corp. currently owns 9.9 per cent of shares which it acquired in stages throughout 2023. We would not be surprised to see interest from other Senior players as well.”
“The breakthrough discovery at Valley may be attributed to management’s decades of experience in the Yukon which led them to assemble a highly prospective portfolio. Aside from RIRGS potential near Valley, portions of the broader land package are considered to be analogues to Nevada’s Great Basin with potential for Carlin-Type and multiple other styles of mineralization that are yet to be systematically explored.”
Pointing to “the high quality of exploration results to date, heightened M&A appeal given the rarity of large-scale gold discoveries in safe jurisdictions and management’s first-mover positioning for further discovery potential in eastern Yukon,” he set a target of $9 per share. The average target on the Street is $9.80.
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In a research report released Monday previewing fourth-quarter earnings season for Canadian diversified financial firms, CIBC World Markets analyst Nik Priebe downgraded Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $160 target. The average on the Street is $178.89.
“After reviewing draft regulations for the new interest rate cap, it has come to our attention that a consultation process was recently completed examining a further reduction to the rate cap” he said. “The timing of the consultation was much earlier than expected, and we are left to wonder if it was scheduled intentionally to conclude in advance of the 2024 Budget. We have no basis to speculate on the outcome and no proprietary insight on the decision‑making process of the Finance Minister’s office. However, we fear that a political lens might be more appropriate in assessing the probability of further action on the interest rate cap than an academic one. There has clearly been some forward progress on this file and it simply doesn’t feel prudent to maintain an Outperformer rating on goeasy in advance of the Budget.”
Mr. Priebe also made these target adjustments:
- Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N/BAM-T, “outperformer”) to US$47 from US$40. Average: US$40.91.
- CI Financial Corp. (CIX-T, “neutral”) to $17.50 from $15. Average: $17.92.
- ECN Capital Corp. (ECN-T, “neutral”) to $3 from $2.60. Average: $2.91.
- Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T, “neutral”) to $7 from $5.25. Average: $6.32.
- Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T, “neutral”) to $40 from $38. Average: $40.71.
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Desjardins Securities analyst Brent Stadler raised his targets for both Boralex Inc. (BLX-T) and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (INE-T) after they were awarded wind power projects by Hydro-Québec on Friday.
“We expect 10–12 per cent-plus levered IRRs, and at the midpoint, we estimate the projects are worth $0.65/share and C$0.20/share to BLX and INE, respectively, with the potential for upside depending on how the ITC is allocated,” he said.
Mr. Stadler increased his Boralex target by $1 to $44, keeping a “top pick” recommendation. His Innergex target rose to $14.50 from $14 with a “buy” rating. The averages are.
“We expect annual recurring auctions in Québec and believe both companies will likely remain well-positioned in that process,” he said. “The auction success gives us further confidence that BLX could likely be the top grower in the space, while we see good value in INE’s shares at current trading levels.”
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin raised his fourth-quarter 2023 earnings expectation on Monday for Air Canada (AC-T) to reflect lower fuel costs.
“We are increasing our Q4/23 estimate to $524-million (from $439-million) vs consensus of $539-million, strictly on the benefit from lower fuel prices,” he said. “For 2024, we previously anticipated a return to 2019 capacity levels by 2024. However, given the robust capacity ramp-up over the last two years, OEM delays, and MRO slowdowns, we reduce our capacity assumption for AC to a decline of 3 per cent vs. 2019 (or up 10 per cent year-over-year). Our 2024 estimate of $3.209-billion remains below consensus of $3.765-billion and guidance of $3.5-billion to $4-billion as we see multiple headwinds facing the airline industry, including the sustainability of higher fares, increased new entrants, and higher labour costs.
“Given the challenging operating environment (supply-chain challenges, MRO delays, high costs, and geopolitical downside risks), we believe AC will leave 2024 EBITDA guidance unchanged.”
Maintaining a “sector perform” rating for Air Canada shares, he raised his target by $1 to $18. The average is $29.95.
Mr. Spracklin and colleague James McGarragle maintained their ratings and targets for the other stocks in the sector, which are:
- Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) with an “outperform” rating and $98 target. Average: $77.87.
- CAE Inc. (CAE-T) with an “outperform” rating and $34 target. Average: $35.17.
- Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $3.75 target. Average: $3.67.
- Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) with an “outperform” rating and $65 target. Average: $63.25.
“Our Cdn Airlines & Aerospace Heatmap powered by RBC Elements points to continued weak leading indicators and robust coincident indicators,” the analysts said. “In addition, we note Cdn/US airfare CPI continues to trend negatively, directionally supported by our proprietary Canadian Airfare Index. Key given US peers’ guidance is predicated on continued higher fares to offset the higher cost environment due to new labour agreements and MRO costs. Overall, we expect guidance updates in Q4 with details of each below. We like the set-up for BBD into 2024; which based on our estimates means that the 2025 (multi-year) guide is also looking increasingly conservative with risk to the upside, in our view.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk lowered his Street-high Altus Group Ltd. (AIF-T) target to $59 from $63 with a “buy” rating. The average is $51.61.
“We see a compelling reward-to-risk proposition afforded by Altus, one of our top picks for 2024,” he said. “We are reiterating our BUY rating while trimming our target price ... on a more conservative recurring revenue growth forecast in Analytics. Altus shares have declined 20 per cent over the last year, materially underperforming the S&P/TSX Information Technology Index’s 42-per-cent increase. The shares reflect significant challenges in the commercial real estate (CRE) macroeconomic outlook and the perception amongst some investors that Altus’ pending acquisition of REVS for $310-million is ill-timed. In this note we argue (1) Altus’ revenue model is robust allowing it to grow despite CRE headwinds and (2) Altus has the ability to rapidly deleverage following the REVS acquisition.
“The stock appears exceedingly inexpensive. The market is applying a real estate services company multiple to Altus, seemingly ignoring the fact that 50 per cent of pro forma revenue is of a high-margin, recurring nature. Altus trades at 15 times EV/EBITDA (2024 estimates; 14.5 times with a full year of REVS) vs. the real estate tech group at 38 times, data and analytics providers at 25 times, and the real estate services group at 13 times. We apply 16 times to our H2/2024-H1/2025 EBITDA estimate less our Q2/2024 net debt forecast to arrive at our $59.00 one-year target.”
* TD Securities’ Steven Green raised his Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB-T) to $2.50 from $3.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $2.34.
* Barclays’ Ian Rossouw cut his First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) target by $1 to $11 with an “underweight” rating. The average on the Street is $16.91.
“We estimate B/S liquidity is manageable through 2024 assuming new secured debt issuance & refinancing . However, in the absence of these, liquidity falls short in H2- 24, highlighting urgency to address maturities and/or raise more debt/equity/asset sales,” he said.
* Cormark Securities’ Gavin Fairweather raised his Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD-T) target to $35 from $32 with a “buy” rating. The average is $27.40.
* TD Cowen’s David Deckelbaum cut his targets for Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp. (LAAC-N/LAAC-T, “outperform”) to US$6 from US$14, Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC-N/LAC-T, “outperform”) to US$8 from US$13 and Lithium Royalty Corp. (LIRC-T, “outperform”) to $10 (Canadian) from $14. The averages are US$14.18, US$11.94 and $16.96, respectively.
* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman resumed Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $89 target. The average is $91.14.
“Stella-Jones is the leading producer of pressure-treated wood products in North America. The company’s main end-markets – Utility Poles and Railway Ties – should be beneficiaries of generational infrastructure spend that is still in early days. But with the shares up 70 per cent in the LTM [last 12-months] and trading near all-time highs, we believe most of the upside has already been priced-in. 2024 estimates (and 2025 valuations) already reflect multi-year pole tailwinds, in our view. At the same time, we see emerging risks as competitors increase capacity and capabilities, while upcoming U.S. federal elections may impact the timing/amount of government funding (re. IIJA and IRA). We see low probability of material earnings revisions in Railway Ties and Residential Lumber, and while the M&A opportunity set seems sufficient, the pipeline will likely be spread out over several years. With the shares trading at a 3.2-per-cent FCF yield on our 2024, we view the risk/reward as balanced.”