Canadian bond funds for investors who believe interest rates have peaked.
The screen
With Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate hike at top of mind for investors, those who have been keeping their powder dry may find an opportunity if they believe the rate hike cycle is near its end. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates (i.e. when rates go up, prices go down). Moreover, bonds with longer maturities are more sensitive to interest rate changes than those with shorter maturities (like Treasury bills or money market instruments). So, if rates come down in the future, those invested in long-duration bonds will stand to benefit. With this in mind, here’s a few ideas for investors that can be found by considering the following metrics:
A four- or five-star Morningstar Rating for Funds, which indicates that the fund has historically outperformed respective category peers after fees, on a risk-adjusted basis. Our data show that, although the star ratings are backwards-looking, funds that have received five stars as a group outperform those that have received four stars, three stars, etc., in periods after receiving the rating. In other words, it’s more likely that a fund manager with a track record of outperforming peers will continue to outperform in the future, as compared with those that have historically underperformed peers.
A Morningstar Medalist Rating of gold, silver or bronze, isolating funds that Morningstar believes will produce excess after-fee returns in the future, based on our analysis of people (quality of the management team), parent (stewardship of the fund company) and process (robustness of investment decision-making).
Only ETFs and D-class mutual funds (those that are available through discount brokerages without a bundled advice cost) in Canadian fixed income and Canadian corporate fixed-income categories were considered in this search.
Source: Morningstar Direct | Data as of July 11, 2023
The ETFs and DIY funds that met the above requirements are listed in the accompanying table, which includes management expense ratios, historical performance and ratings. Also included is a breakout of the types of bond held in each fund, the average credit quality, and measure of yield and duration. I note encouragingly that many of these ETFs and funds have a passive investment mandate – meaning they follow an index – which keeps costs low, to the benefit of the investor. The table is sorted first by category, then by medalist and star ratings, respectively.
This article does not constitute financial advice. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own independent research before purchasing any of the investments listed here.
Ian Tam, CFA, is director of investment research for Morningstar Canada.
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