I am currently researching a prospective investment opportunity in Allentown, Pa.-based Air Products and Chemicals Ltd.
Its growth prospects are exciting, but I don’t yet have a firm handle on the risk- reward dynamic for the stock.
Here’s my thought process.
Air Products is the world’s largest producer of hydrogen, and this is what initially attracted me to the company. Hydrogen-generated power is expected to play a key role in the switch to sustainable fuel and we are only at the beginning of the expansion of the industry.
The company is also a global leader in carbon capture technology. They own a number of facilities that use coal to produce synthetic fuel, while capturing the carbon generated by the process instead of releasing it harmfully into the atmosphere.
As an industrial firm, Air Products is poised to benefit from the post-pandemic global economic recovery. In addition, its environmental bona fides make it eligible for the ESG-compliant portfolios that are attracting huge investor inflows.
The company has a strong and dependable growth profile thanks to long-term sales contracts. Profits and dividends have increased at a consistent 10-per-cent annual rate over the past six years.
The stock valuation, however, is a problem.
Its trailing price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is five points higher than the S&P 500 average, although this doesn’t bother me that much - I am willing to pay up a little bit for the consistent growth profile.
This company’s forward PE ratio – the current price divided by consensus 12-month consensus profit estimates – is 8 points higher than the benchmark, and this is where the issues lie. A stock trading at 31 times forward earnings certainly isn’t cheap relative to 10 per cent profit growth.
The hydrogen exposure is great, not least because European governments have committed to extensive annual investment in hydrogen power in the coming decade. The company, however, also has high exposure to liquid natural gas (LNG) production. Natural gas is, of course, a fossil fuel and a target for de-carbonization efforts. I’ll need to be sure about future revenues from this business.
Air Products also gets 20 per cent of its revenue from operations in China. The relationship between China and the U.S. has been frosty of late so geopolitical risk also has to be taken in to account.
The overriding question that will determine whether I actually buy the stock is straightforward: How much am I willing to pay, and how much risk am I willing to accept, to receive dependable dividends and cash flow from a secular growth story like renewable energy?
How about you? Would you buy it? Let me know your thoughts by leaving a comment on this story, by reaching out on Twitter, or via email at sbarlow@globeandmail.com.
-- Scott Barlow, Globe and Mail market strategist
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Ask Globe Investor
Question: What do I need to be aware of when purchasing a bank mutual fund? I have a small amount in my TFSA and have a direct investing account. I am thinking of buying one of these or a bank stock.
Answer: For starters, a mutual fund will provide broad diversification. Buying a stock is a bet on a single company. If you have a small amount to invest, the mutual fund is the more prudent course.
That said, you need to do some research before you buy. Your financial institution will push their own line of funds but there may be better options. Look especially at past performance, the cost of the fund, and the risk level. If your TFSA account allows stock market trades, also check comparable exchange-traded funds before making a decision.
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