U.S. bond giant PIMCO said on Wednesday it is increasing its bond exposure in developed markets outside the United States as inflation could complicate the shift of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
The $1.9 trillion asset manager expects an easing in central bank policies to bolster bonds in markets such as Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro zone, but is underweight U.S. fixed income as economic growth in America may continue to be accompanied by rising price pressures.
“The global economic and market outlook suggests diverging paths among regions and sectors,” portfolio managers Erin Browne and Emmanuel Sharef wrote in an asset allocation outlook report.
“In fixed income markets, we’re adding to our investments in select countries outside the U.S. where easier monetary policy this year is likely to boost bonds,” they said.
U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, have surged for much of this year as strong economic and inflation data have defied market assumptions that the Federal Reserve would soon shift to a less restrictive monetary stance.
Even though Treasuries have rallied this month, benchmark 10-year yields are still up over 60 basis points since the beginning of the year. Bets on the path of the Fed’s policy rate in futures markets have gone from pricing in over 150 basis points of cuts in early January to cuts of 44 basis points as of Wednesday.
PIMCO is overall bullish on corporate debt markets, particularly securitized credit, but is underweight high-yield bonds as defaults could rise. It favors U.S. equities to other markets given continued signs of economic strength.
Still, the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining high for longer than previously expected could eventually pressure areas of the economy that are vulnerable to higher borrowing costs, such as commercial real estate, private credit and regional banks, said PIMCO.
“This means that although the factors that have contributed to U.S. economic resilience appear durable, we can’t rule out the risk of recession,” it said.
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