Goldman Sachs held onto its view to go long on commodities in 2024 which have given a 9% return year to date, which is further expected to rise to 15% by year-end, on cyclical and structural support to demand, and geopolitical risks.
The bank forecast a return of 20% in select sectors such as energy and industrial metals ex-nickel and zinc in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index for 2024, it wrote in a research note dated Sunday.
Data so far across developed and emerging markets have renewed confidence in cyclical support to commodities this year, the bank said, adding that rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe from June this year are further seen supporting commodities demand and prices, particularly across copper, aluminium and oil products.
Structural support for commodities remained intact, as evidenced by strong green metals demand and oil product margins year to date, while the role of commodities investing as a geopolitical hedge was still in the cards, as seen in the ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions and recent attacks on Russian refining capacity.
Copper’s bullish qualities, such as progressive scarcity, particularly from second half of this year onward underpins the bank’s 12-month 40% price upside target.
However, Goldman Sachs took a bearish view for commodities such as U.S. natural gas, lithium, nickel and zinc.
“We continue to recommend investors short Oct’24 Henry Hub,” the bank said.
“Within the industrial metals, the segment with the most bearish fundamentals remains battery materials ... we believe it is too early to call a decisive end to these respective bear markets.”
On a 12-month basis, the bank targets a 9%, 13%, and 27% downside in cobalt ($26,000/t), nickel ($15,000/t) and lithium carbonate ($10,000/t), respectively.
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