Travellers who haven’t yet finalized their plans for summer may be able to find some unusually cheap flights for the tail end of the season this year.
Airline executives across the world are warning that the travel boom that lifted industry profits through the second half of 2022 and last year has fizzled out – and sooner than many expected. But if overestimating the demand for summer flights is proving a costly miscalculation for several carriers, it is also leading to some unseasonably low fares on popular vacation routes, as the companies scramble to fill seats, said John Gradek, co-ordinator of McGill University’s aviation management program.
“From a consumer perspective, it’s great,” Mr. Gradek said, listing a variety of lower-cost options for Canadians, especially on transatlantic travel.
Air Canada AC-T is among the airlines that have had to curb their expectations about the demand for travel this summer. After European no-frills behemoth Ryanair warned of slumping profits, and Germany’s Lufthansa lowered its profit target earlier this month for the second time this year, Canada’s flagship carrier trimmed its profit forecast for the year on Monday, citing factors that included fierce competition in international markets and excess capacity on some routes.
In April the company announced it was adding flights and routes across a number of markets, including boosting capacity by 25 per cent to key leisure destinations in Southern Europe compared with the previous summer.
But the company’s big bet on peak travel season appears to have backfired, Mr. Gradek said. After spending with abandon the past two summers, many consumers are now balking at the cost of flights, he added.
Still, for those who have the flexibility and financial wherewithal to embark on a last-minute vacation, opportunity beckons. Routes connecting Canada to European destinations for travel between the latter part of August and September are where Mr. Gradek is seeing some of the lowest prices.
Well-travelled Canadians share their summer vacation relaxation tips
For example, a basic round-trip fare from Toronto to London’s Heathrow Airport with a departure date of Sept. 7 and return on Sept. 25 is available for as low as $777 on Air Canada. That’s the same fare the airline is offering for travel dates in November, considered a low-season period when prices are usually the lowest.
Flying to Madrid and back? Air Canada is advertising fares of less than $1,000 from Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal for travel in early September.
Other European destinations where Mr. Gradek has spotted deals include Portugal, Italy and Germany.
Even Paris makes the list for dates after the coming Olympic Games, with round-trip flights from both Toronto and Montreal starting at around $700.
And Air Canada’s deals are putting pressure on others to offer equally attractive low rates, Mr. Gradek said.
Air Transat, for example, is advertising a $722 round-trip fare to London’s Gatwick Airport for travel between Sept. 8 and Sept. 15.
Still, some of the lowest fares may take some trial and error to find, Mr. Gradek warned. Leaving and returning in the middle of the week and on flights that depart early in the morning or late at night often yields the best results. Consumers may also find steep price differences depending on the calendar dates they choose.
Travellers should also keep in mind that basic fares typically don’t include a litany of charges – from baggage to seat-selection fees – that will likely increase their final price tag.
Competition is heating up for domestic routes as well. For select routes within the country, Air Canada is currently advertising discounts of 20 per cent off its cheapest fares and 5 per cent on pricier ticket options, a promotion that’s also available for some U.S. destinations.
Among the featured deals on the airline’s website as of Tuesday were $210 for a one-way flight from Montreal to Halifax for travel on Aug. 19 and $95 for flying from Toronto to Winnipeg on Sept. 6.
On the home front, Air Canada is battling growing competition from Porter Airlines, which has been adding new destinations across North America as it adds jets to its fleet. The upstart airline is running its own promotion featuring discounts of up to 20 per cent. The deals are available for bookings made by this Thursday and travel by Dec. 15, including flights in July and August.
Mr. Gradek sees the downward pressure on flight prices extending into the early fall, the shoulder season that typically offers some of the best deals of the year for savvy travellers unbound by the school-year schedule.
Airlines once again are having to put much more thought into what customers might be ready to pay, he said.
“The binge is off,” he added.