Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally in Raleigh, N.C., on June 22, 2016.The Associated Press
Globe editors have posted this research report with permission of CMC Markets. This should not be construed as an endorsement of the report's recommendations. For more on The Globe's disclaimers please read here. The following is excerpted from the report:
The markets' rocky first six weeks of 2016 favoured Donald Trump and the Republicans, as they suggested discontent with the current government, but since the middle of February, market expectations have been tipping toward the Democrats.
In the last six elections, the Dow fell 6.3 per cent on average in the first half of years where the party in power changed hands and rose 5.2 per cent in years when the incumbent party held power. This year, the Dow rose 3.25 per cent in the first half, suggesting traders are encouraged about the U.S. economy's prospects and are not necessarily in a hurry to kick the Democrats out.
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