Elon Musk’s dystopian Cybercab vision adds to his pile of false promises

Open this photo in gallery:

Well, that was disappointing. Both as a technical demonstration of Tesla’s self-driving car capability and as a piece of sci-fi movie magic, the company’s Robotaxi unveiling Thursday night at the Warner Bros. studio in Los Angeles was a dud.

Now, I’m about to recap the news in case you missed it last night, but when you read what comes next please bear in mind Tesla (TSLA-Q) boss Elon Musk has consistently struck out on predictions about self-driving cars. In 2016, he said they were just two years away. (They weren’t.)

That said, yesterday in Los Angeles, Musk presented prototypes of Tesla’s Robotaxi – which he called the Cybercab – and the Robovan, neither of which had a steering wheel or pedals. Musk pitched the Cybercab as a fully-autonomous two-seater that would cost less than US$30,000 and go into production in 2026.

“I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames,” Musk said during the presentation.

Tesla’s robotaxi event was long on Musk promises. Investors wanted more details

There were almost no details on the art-deco-looking Robovan, other than it can hold up to 20 people. Musk also promised that unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) would be available starting next year on the Tesla Model 3 and Y in Texas and California. Then he said that feature would be available on all cars Tesla makes, including the Cybertruck. (Currently FSD requires constant human-driver supervision, which means it isn’t fully self-driving at all according to experts.)

Musk pitched a future in which people would own a small fleet of Cybercabs. “You’re the shepherd, and you take care of your flock of cars. I think it’ll be pretty cool. And, I think it’s going to be a glorious future,” he said.

Imagine that: some day your child could grow-up and care for their very own flock of Tesla Robotaxis. Maybe you could some day be a car landlord (carlord?), shepherding your private fleet that clogs city streets already in desperate need of better public transit. Putting more two-seater cars on the road has to be among the least space-efficient solutions to solving congestion yet proposed. It’s up there with Doug Ford’s idea to build a huge car tunnel under Highway 401. Just imagine legions of empty Cybercabs circling city streets endlessly, waiting for customers. It’s dystopian. (I’m all for safer streets, self-driving cars, more green space and battery-powered transport, but Tesla’s Uber/Airbnb-style platform for privatized small-scale public transit isn’t the way to get there.)

Open this photo in gallery:

It was oddly appropriate that Tesla’s event took place on the Warner Bros. studio lot, a setting that has played host to many other dystopian sci-fi visions of the future.

While attendees at the event seemed to cheer Musk’s every word, investors seemed far-less impressed with his latest attempt to pitch Tesla not as an automaker but as an AI robotics company. Tesla stock fell 8 per cent on Friday morning following the event, while shares in ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft were up.

Part of the problem is that Musk just went on stage again making familiar claims about ambitious timelines for autonomous vehicles and incredible safety without actually backing up those claims with details. The company still hasn’t released comprehensive data to prove its safety claims about FSD. The company didn’t even show Cybercabs operating on public roads, only in a closed environment on the Warner Bros studio. Musk didn’t explain what sort of technological breakthrough would enable these fleets of Cybercabs and Robovans to be, as he claimed, 10 or 20 or 30 times safer than a human driver.

What Musk did say is, “the solution that we have is AI and vision, so there’s no expensive equipment needed.” In other words, it appears Tesla is still trying to make truly autonomous cars without the pricey LIDAR sensors (think: laser radar) that its rivals are using. Companies including Waymo and Gatik – which already have truly driverless cars and trucks operating without human supervision on select public streets – all rely on LIDAR-equipped vehicles.

Don’t forget, this is the same Elon Musk, who, in 2016, said it would be two years until users could remotely summon a Tesla from New York to Los Angeles. In 2019, he said it’s possible Tesla could have a million robotaxis on the road by the end of 2020. In 2020, he was extremely confident cars with Level 5, “or essentially complete autonomy” were very close. The list goes on, but you get the idea.

If past performance is any indicator, Musk’s statements at Tesla’s long-awaited Robotaxi event will likely just be added to the pile of missed deadlines and “optimistic” time frames he has set for self-driving cars. A better future is possible, but this isn’t it.

Open this photo in gallery:

Shopping for a new car? Check out the new Globe Drive Build and Price Tool to see the latest discounts, rebates and rates on new cars, trucks and SUVs. Click here to get your price.