Good morning, Mark Iype in Edmonton today.
Everybody ready?
On Monday, the clock officially started on a 28-day election campaign in Alberta, in what is expected to be a close race between Danielle Smith’s governing United Conservative Party and Rachel Notley’s New Democratic Party.
The election, slated for May 29, is expected to be tight, and both parties are looking for ways to woo voters. The UCP is pitching itself as the one most capable of managing the economy and the affordability crisis. The NDP, meanwhile, is focusing on health and education, and argues it should be the choice so it can end the chaos of the UCP’s four-year reign.
And it didn’t take long for the fireworks to get started.
The governing UCP’s opening salvo was a $1-billion pledge to cut personal income taxes and to maintain hundreds of millions more in fuel tax savings. The NDP responded by attacking the proposal as fiscally questionable while promising that it will soon unveil its own affordability measures.
“This permanent billion-dollar tax cut will provide meaningful, timely tax relief to Albertans at a time when they need it most,” Ms. Smith said.
The UCP, which won its first election in 2019 under then-leader Jason Kenney, is not expected to maintain the same grip on power under Ms. Smith’s leadership. Polls show the two parties running nearly neck and neck.
And while the eventual winner needs to claim at least 44 of Alberta’s 87 seats to form government, all eyes will be on Calgary – generally more moderate than the rural parts of the province, where support for the UCP remains strong. Alberta’s largest city is the key battleground, hammered home last week when Ms. Smith pledged over $300-million in taxpayer dollars to help it and the owners of the Calgary Flames hockey team build a new events centre and arena.
While the rural-urban divide of Alberta politics is not new, the UCP and Ms. Smith have the backing of a new player on the scene this time around – one that is pulling the party further to the right.
As reported by The Globe and Mail’s Carrie Tait on the weekend, Take Back Alberta, born out of a frustration with COVID-19 restrictions during the pandemic, is a mostly rural movement and an ambitious effort to influence power and remake society’s institutions to reflect the conservative values that bind the group together.
“A small fringe minority with unacceptable views has taken over all of your institutions,” TBA leader David Parker told a crowd at a meeting earlier this year. “They’ve taken over your legal system, they’ve taken over your education system. They’ve taken over your medical system.
“And they are dictating to people what is true – what you’re allowed to believe.”
While Mr. Parker has boasted of his connection to Ms. Smith, and that includes having her as a guest at his March wedding, TBA is playing a long game. Having already taken over a number of constituency associations and with several candidates sharing its worldview, the movement is hoping it can help the UCP win in some key ridings, including some in Calgary.
So while the UCP, with TBA’s backing, has likely sewn up most rural ridings, it’s looking like a fight to the finish to see who eventually wins government.
Stay tuned!
This is the weekly Western Canada newsletter written by B.C. Editor Wendy Cox and Alberta Bureau Chief Mark Iype. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.
Wendy Cox