It’s not the kind of poll result that a politician facing a leadership review wants to get. But Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is used to it by now.
A new survey by the Angus Reid Institute has to be one of the most demoralizing to date for Mr. Kenney, as it shows Albertans unhappy with just about every aspect of his United Conservative Party government’s performance. Just 30 per cent of those polled approve of the job he’s doing – one of the lowest such marks for any current premier in the country.
When asked how the UCP was doing in the areas of energy, the economy, environment/climate change, COVID-19, education and health care, Albertans gave Mr. Kenney a failing grade in each category. Among those, 73 per cent said he was doing a poor or very poor job managing health care, while 65 per cent said he was doing the same with education.
If there was any good news, it was on the question of voter intention if an election were held today: The NDP and Mr. Kenney’s UCP are in a statistical tie. Forty per cent said they’d vote for Rachel Notley’s NDP, while 38 per cent said they’d vote UCP.
This poll arrives against the backdrop of an April 9 gathering of UCP members in Red Deer. This event was supposed to include a vote on Mr. Kenney’s leadership. That has been changed to a mail-in ballot instead, much to the consternation of the Premier’s critics in the party who are suspicious of the move. (It is thought that those who planned to spend the money to go to Red Deer skewed more toward wanting Mr. Kenney out. A mail-in ballot would allow more moderate, pro-Kenney members to cast a ballot from their hometowns.)
Indeed, the change was criticized by 33 riding associations. There are reports that several UCP MLAs are threatening to leave the party and sit as Independents or under a new banner if the Premier attempts to stay on.
I’d suggest they start thinking about a new name now, because I don’t think Mr. Kenney is going anywhere.
He’s already made it clear that he will hang on with a 50-per-cent-plus-one mandate in the leadership vote. It’s almost impossible to imagine him not achieving at least that. His political staffers are furiously working the phones attempting to drum up support.
Recently, Alberta entrepreneur and provocateur, W. Brett Wilson, published a letter of support for the Premier – one that was widely circulated by Mr. Kenney’s communications team. I’m not sure I’d be bragging about getting the support of someone who once suggested that those who opposed the province’s oil and gas sector be hung for treason. But then again, beggars can’t be choosers.
While dismal poll results are nothing new for Mr. Kenney – one earlier in the month by Think HQ Public Affairs indicated 61 per cent of Albertans wanted the UCP to replace him as leader – the latest one by Angus Reid confirms the view many inside the party have: that the Premier is badly damaged goods.
Every week there seems to be something.
A recent report by CBC News, for instance, revealed that the Premier had far more knowledge of a plan to have a political operative run in the UCP leadership race back in 2017 for the sole purpose of damaging his greatest rival for the job – Brian Jean. The RCMP is still looking into the matter and the Premier revealed this week that he was interviewed by police in February.
Mr. Jean, meantime, is set to join the UCP caucus after easily winning a by-election in which he campaigned on getting rid of the leader. Meantime, another former Wildrose leader, Danielle Smith, has announced she plans to run for the UCP in the next election, but will seek the leadership if Mr. Kenney is dumped from the job, which she clearly believes he should be.
Meanwhile, a conversation that Mr. Kenney had with political staff earlier in the week was surreptitiously taped and leaked to the media. In it, the Premier said his party was under siege from “lunatics” who were “trying to take over the asylum.” Those extremist elements, according to Mr. Kenney, include homophobes and religious bigots. The Premier suggested he was the only person who could save the UCP from itself.
Yes, someone with a 30-per-cent approval rating among the public.
As I say, I think Mr. Kenney survives this leadership review, especially now that it has been moved to a mail-in ballot. Whether his caucus survives intact is another matter. It’s hard to see how it will if the Premier insists on maintaining his tenuous grip on power despite his high negatives inside and outside of his party.
Then again, few gave him much of a chance of persuading the old Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties to disband and reunite under the UCP banner.
He’s been known to do the impossible before.
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Gary Mason