B.C. Premier John Horgan has revealed his preference for electoral reform in this month’s referendum on British Columbia’s voting system: He voted for the only option for change on the ballot that is actually in use in other jurisdictions around the world.
But in a referendum where dozens of details won’t be worked out until after the ballots are counted, it is not known how close his preferred system – mixed-member proportional (MMP) – would come to actually delivering on the fundamental promise of proportional representation.
Mr. Horgan told reporters in Victoria he has mailed in his referendum ballot, voting to change the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system in B.C. for MMP, “because it is the most widely used internationally,” he told reporters. Germany, New Zealand and Scotland are some of the jurisdictions that use this system.
The 2018 Referendum on Electoral Reform package and mail-in ballot from Elections B.C. is pictured in North Vancouver on Nov. 1, 2018.JONATHAN HAYWARD/The Canadian Press
Under the proposed MMP system, at least 60 per cent of B.C.'s elected officials would continue to be selected under FPTP in electoral districts, but just how many will be decided later by an all-party committee of the legislature, if this system is adopted. The remainder of MLAs would represent regions, chosen from party lists and allocated according to their party’s share of the popular vote.
The mail-in vote will decide if British Columbians keep their current voting system, or move to one of three systems of proportional representation: In addition to MMP, the ballot offers dual-member proportional (DMP), and rural-urban proportional (RUP), neither of which are in use anywhere.
The ballots must be returned by the end of November and are expected to be counted by mid-December.
So far, the referendum debate has been markedly partisan, with the opposition Liberals and their supporters urging voters to reject change. The NDP formed a minority government last year based on an agreement with the Greens that calls for a shared campaign to advocate for changing the province’s voting system to a form of proportional representation.
Under proportional representation, Mr. Horgan said, “if you get 40 per cent of the votes, you get 40 per cent of the seats."
That’s only partially true, said parliamentary expert Ron Cheffins, a professor emeritus at the University of Victoria’s political science and law departments. Mr. Cheffins, who has lectured Commonwealth parliamentarians on electoral systems, said Mr. Horgan’s choice would be the closest of the options on the ballot to a proportional representation system.
“It is genuinely, partially proportional,” he said in an interview.
Green MLA Sonia Furstenau, her party’s lead on electoral reform, agreed with Mr. Cheffins that none of the three systems offered for change will deliver a pure proportional result.
“I don’t think there is any appetite for that. The great thing about these three systems is they maintain that connection to your local representative, and it’s not a significantly jarring change in how we elect people, but it does provide a far more proportional outcome than we get right now," she said. Neither she nor Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver would disclose which option they voted for, but she said any of the options is better than the current system. "What we are trying to avoid is 40 per cent of the vote turning into 100 per cent of the power – that’s a real distortion of voter intention.”
Typically, B.C. has had a two-party systemin which one political party forms a majority government with 40-45 per cent of the popular vote, often just a few percentage points ahead of its main rivals. (Sometimes the results are even more skewed because of where votes are concentrated: In 1996, the NDP formed a majority even though more British Columbians voted for the Liberals in that poll.)
But in the May, 2017, election, the NDP and the Liberals emerged on election day in a virtual dead heat, each with 40 per cent of the popular vote, while the Greens won three of the 87 seats with almost 17 per cent of voters’ support. It was just enough to give them the balance of power and, after weeks of negotiations, the Greens signed an agreement with the NDP, toppling the governing Liberals.
Mr. Horgan and Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson will square off on Nov. 8 in a debate on electoral reform. Mr. Wilkinson and his Liberals argue that the current system is best to preserve local representation, and warn that proportional representation will concentrate power in urban centres.
Critics of electoral reform also say proportional representation will mean politicians will be selected based on party lists crafted in party headquarters, and Mr. Cheffins noted that is generally what happens. "The party prepares the lists. The problem is, you get the same people at the top of the list, time and time again. "
Mr. Horgan said that is not his preference: “I don’t support closed lists, I support citizens voting for people and electing them to our legislature.” The Greens also support open lists. However that decision – whether B.C. will use open lists chosen by voters, rather than closed lists chosen by parties – will not be made until after the referendum. That’s one of the details that will be referred to an all-party committee of the legislature, if voters reject the current system in this months' referendum.