Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadians in Lebanon should leave now as they can't rely on a government-led evacuation if war engulfs that country. Buildings are damaged after being hit by an Israeli air strike in the southern suburb of Beirut on July 31.Hussein Malla/The Associated Press
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is warning all Canadians still in Lebanon to leave because Ottawa cannot guarantee a rescue if conflict escalates.
Citing a “real” risk of an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, Mr. Trudeau told the media on Monday that Canadians should book a ticket out while airports are open and “commercial routes are available.”
“The challenges in the region are significant. We are making certain preparations to be able to support in the event that everything gets much, much worse, but the situation is so difficult that we may not be able to get all Canadians out,” Mr. Trudeau said.
The federal government has for months urged Canadians to leave Lebanon. The Canadian Armed Forces have been positioning staff and equipment in the eastern Mediterranean in the event of an evacuation mission amid heightened fears of an all-out regional war in the Middle East.
Those calls have become increasingly urgent after two high-profile assassinations last month, for which Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have vowed retaliation against Israel.
An Israeli strike on July 30 in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, as well as an Iranian military adviser and five civilians. Coupled with the killing in Tehran hours later of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the strike has risked sparking a wider regional war. Ottawa has designated Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist groups.
The Israeli government has said it would respond to any attack from Iran or its proxy Hezbollah, potentially putting Lebanon in its crosshairs.
Iran further raised concerns last Wednesday, when it issued a warning to civilian airlines around the world to avoid its air space owing to military exercises that day and Thursday.
While Ottawa has not yet said it would conduct an evacuation mission should Canadians, permanent residents and their families become stranded in Lebanon, plans for one are moving ahead. The Forces stationed in the Mediterranean are on standby to assist the Global Affairs Department with planning and logistics if an operation is given the green light.
Nearly 22,000 Canadians have registered their presence in Lebanon with Global Affairs, the government said last week, but that doesn’t capture everyone there.
Global Affairs estimates that between 40,000 and 75,000 Canadians live in Lebanon.
Canada and its allies helped evacuate stranded citizens in Israel by air in the wake of the Hamas attack on the Jewish state on Oct. 7. Since then, planning for an evacuation from Lebanon has been in the works.
In the fall, Canadian officials said the military was working on contingency plans with allies on a potential evacuation, including setting up a multinational non-combatant evacuation operations centre in Cyprus.
As Western allies prepare, intense diplomatic efforts are also under way to de-escalate the situation. Last Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron’s office said he spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and urged him to do “everything in his power to avoid a new military escalation.”
Mr. Macron also spoke to Jordan’s King Abdullah II, Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier this week.
U.S. President Joe Biden has also been calling leaders in the region, speaking last Tuesday with his Egyptian and Qatari counterparts.
Lebanon sits on the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to its south and Syria to its north and east.
The federal government’s website notes that its advice urging Canadians in Lebanon to leave immediately has been in place since October. Leaving is becoming increasingly difficult as some airlines have already suspended service from Beirut, but with more flight cancellations and airspace closings expected, the government warns it will be even harder to exit.
“You should not rely on the Government of Canada for assisted departure or evacuation,” the website says.
Lebanon was the centre of Canada’s largest-ever evacuation mission in 2006 when the government spent nearly $100-million evacuating 14,000 citizens from the country. That mission was conducted amid an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, which killed around 1,300 Lebanese people and 165 Israelis.