B.C. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau speaks to supporters following her loss in the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding on Oct. 19. Furstenau is expected to take a lead role in any negotiations with the NDP and Conservatives to reach a deal to secure her party’s support in the House.CHAD HIPOLITO/The Canadian Press
British Columbia’s Greens say they won’t entertain negotiations with either the New Democratic Party or the Conservatives until final counts are completed in the province’s razor-thin election, forcing the still-governing NDP to assess how far their precarious mandate will take them.
Forty-nine thousand ballots are yet to be counted for Saturday’s election, where the preliminary results of more than two million votes did not deliver a majority government. The NDP currently have 46 seats, one more than the Conservatives Party’s 45, while the Greens hold the balance of power with two. However, the usual government transition cannot begin until the final results, which could take weeks.
“It’s premature to speculate” on talks with the other parties, said JoJo Beattie, spokesperson for Green Leader Sonia Furstenau, in an interview Monday.
Andrew Watson, senior director of communications for Election BC, said the office is compiling a breakdown of the remaining ballots by riding and expects to release it in the coming days, before the final count begins on Oct. 26. He noted that the 49,000 figure accounts for only about 2 per cent of overall results.
At least two ridings are expected to face an automatic recount. Others could head to B.C. Supreme Court for a judicial recount that would likely push the final results to early November.
Mr. Watson said there will likely be some small updates in coming days, but counts will not be complete until Oct. 28.
Judicial recounts may occur after the conclusion of the final count if the difference between the top two candidates in an electoral district is less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered.
Mr. Watson said there is no set timeline on judicial recounts, as they are conducted by a B.C. Supreme Court justice. However, he cited as an example that the 2020 judicial recount in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky was completed one week after the final count was completed.
In the meantime, NDP Leader David Eby remains Premier. He lost five cabinet members in this election, on top of the six senior ministers who chose not to run again. He’ll need to assemble a cabinet with a lot of new faces.
He must also determine if he is simply running a caretaker government, or if he needs to hold a fall legislature session to launch his campaign commitments and demonstrate that he can effectively govern with a minority – an exercise that could trigger another election if he can’t count on the Greens for support.
As well, one MLA will need to be chosen as Speaker of the House. Usually, that person comes from the government benches, and neither party can afford to give up an MLA for the position.
The Conservatives will be looking at similar exercises in case the final tally of ballots tilts the election in their favour. In the event of an NDP minority government, Conservative Leader John Rustad said Sunday that his party is reaching out to elected MLAs, including Green MLAs, to explore options, and is open to triggering another election.
“And if it happens to be an NDP majority, we’ll be looking at every opportunity possible to stymie their ability to actually get anything done,” he said.
Ms. Furstenau, the Green Leader, lost her seat, but is expected to take a lead role in any negotiations with the NDP and Conservatives to reach a deal to secure her party’s support in the House. In 2017, she was part of the three-member Green caucus that eventually struck a deal to support the NDP for a minority government.
Constitutional expert Philippe Lagassé, a professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, said Mr. Eby doesn’t necessarily need to recall the legislature this fall if he retains his plurality, and that there’s no indication that the Greens and Conservatives are collaborating to withdraw confidence.
There are conventions that could allow Mr. Eby to govern without taking the risk of testing if he has the confidence of the House, Prof. Lagassé said.
“Fundamentally, though, political pressure and the need for certainty may compel Mr. Eby to recall the legislature to demonstrate confidence. Until he does so, there will be doubts about the democratic legitimacy and constitutionality of his government,” he said.