Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe shakes hands with supporters ahead of the launch of a provincial election campaign in Saskatchewan, in Saskatoon, on Oct. 1.Liam Richards/The Canadian Press
Voters in Saskatchewan will head to the ballot boxes on Oct. 28 after a 27-day campaign expected to focus on affordability, housing and health care in a province that has elected the same conservative-leaning party for nearly two decades.
Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe dissolved his government Tuesday, immediately announcing a four-year plan to broadly reduce personal-income tax rates before a crowd of supporters in Saskatoon. NDP Leader Carla Beck quickly shot back from Regina, calling Mr. Moe incompetent and his money management a failure, quips that were met with loud cheers from her supporters.
Mr. Moe’s party, winners of four consecutive majorities since 2007, is facing stiffer competition this fall. Several polls indicate the NDP has a higher chance of convincing voters in bigger city centres. But with almost half the seats in the provincial legislature in rural areas, Ms. Beck has a tough race ahead.
More than two-thirds of the available seats – 48 out of 61 – were held by Mr. Moe’s party in the last election, with 13 for the NDP in opposition. Since then, the balance shifted after by-elections and vacancies, though only slightly.
“Effectively, there is no real third party here, and we already know that we’ll probably see another majority for Moe,” said Tom McIntosh, a political scientist at the University of Regina. “The bigger question is this: Just how much of a run for their money in terms of seat reductions can the NDP give?”
Prof. McIntosh believes Ms. Beck needs to frame her campaign toward rural voters. “The dynamics in this province are such that this could very well be an election where we see a party that wins a majority without any seats in the two largest cities.”
On Tuesday, Ms. Beck took aim at pocketbook concerns, attempting to appeal to voters outside Saskatoon and Regina. “Scott Moe has the distinction of being the only Premier in the entire country to have shrunk the economy before, during and after the pandemic,” she told reporters.
“They’ve taken us from leaders to laggards on issue after issue. Saskatchewan is in last place in education, last place in health care and second-last when it comes to the economy.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Moe painted his own image of the NDP, suggesting that party does not represent rural interests. He also stated that Ms. Beck’s promise for small temporary tax measures, such as gas-tax relief, would exclude people who don’t drive.
He said Saskatchewan would find itself entrenched in hospital closings, a stagnant economy and people leaving for other parts of the country if Ms. Beck were to be elected. Harking back to the NDP’s government from 1991 to 2007 in the province, Mr. Moe added: “Let’s never go back to those days.”
David McGrane, a political studies instructor at the University of Saskatchewan, who was president of the provincial New Democrats from 2016-18 and ran for the party in the last election, said Mr. Moe has made a smart move over the past few years by blaming the NDP for “seemingly every liberal or left-leaning idea possible.”
That includes Mr. Moe’s quarrels with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over the carbon levy on heating fuels and his own new polarizing laws for pronouns, sexual health and gender expression in Saskatchewan, Prof. McGrane added.
First introduced last year, Mr. Moe created policies that require students under 16 to receive parental consent to have their gender-affirming names and pronouns used in schools. After a court challenge, he invoked the notwithstanding clause of the Charter to institute that legislation. He characterized the laws as a way to ensure parents are included in their children’s lives, while also placing restrictions on sexual health and gender education.
Human-rights organizations, such as Amnesty International Canada, have condemned the legislation and, under Mr. Moe’s watch, the provincial human-rights commissioner vocally resigned because of it.
“I’m worried despite the vehement fighting against those laws on the ground, none of that will necessarily be important to this election,” said Rachel Loewen Walker, chair of the women’s and gender studies program in the political studies department at the University of Saskatchewan.
“If you knocked on people’s doors here, you’d see that the general public doesn’t really care to vote for or against a party because they’ve put out a pronoun law. Affordability and the economy are definitely bigger problems,” she added.
“Still, it’s all just awful because we know how this increases suicidality among trans and queer students, bolstering other provinces to make their own versions of these drastic policies. I’m really hoping I’m wrong and that people actually care.”