Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston speaks to reporters following a televised debate in Halifax on Nov. 14.Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press
Nova Scotians head to the polls later this month following a lacklustre campaign focused on housing, affordability and health care, which is shaping up to land incumbent Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston back in the seat of power.
Mr. Houston called a snap election more than six months early, even though it was his party that had established a fixed voting schedule for July – a move that doesn’t appear to be affecting his electability, political observers say.
All three main parties have platforms that address housing, with the Houston government focused on tax cuts and tax breaks, whereas the NDP is fixated on government investing, such as building more homes and capping rent increases. The Liberals are taking a more middle-of-the-road approach – more aligned with the PCs but also promising tax cuts as a centrepiece of their campaign.
Mr. Houston and the PCs remain atop the polls more than halfway through the campaign – a recent survey by Abacus Data put the Tories at 47-per-cent support, with the Liberals and the NDP fighting for second spot at 25 per cent and 23 per cent support respectively.
The Nova Scotia election however has remained conspicuously low-key, lacking momentum for change seen elsewhere, such as in neighbouring New Brunswick where Premier Susan Holt recently won by a landslide over the incumbent PCs. And if the polls are to be believed, change is coming for Ottawa next. But somehow, Mr. Houston is managing to elude that sentiment and will probably gain more seats, said Dalhousie University political science professor Lori Turnbull.
“He’s bucking the trend here,” said Dr. Turnbull. “This is not a good time for incumbents but yet Houston, I think, is sleeping pretty easy every night.”
Mr. Houston appears to be modelling himself after Ontario Premier Doug Ford, she added. Like Mr. Ford, he’s reached for the low-hanging fruit, such as promising to scrap the $1 to $1.25 Halifax-Dartmouth bridge tolls and cutting the HST by one percentage point. As the Ontario Conservatives have done with Mr. Ford, the image of the party is very much tied to the leader without being too ideological, and with the goal to be everyone’s premier. Even Mr. Houston’s campaign slogan “Making it happen” is a nod to Mr. Ford’s 2022 catchphrase, “Getting it done,” noted Dr. Turnbull.
“I think he sees a winning strategy in Ford and I think he’s trying to emulate it,” she said.
Nova Scotians seem to have accepted his win as a foregone conclusion, so the election is “almost like a non-event,” she added.
The real electoral decision comes down to whether Mr. Houston can break out of the traditionally safe rural space for PCs in Nova Scotia and make inroads in Halifax. Dr. Turnbull believes it’s possible with some of the party’s stronger candidates such as long-time former regional councillor Tim Outhit of Bedford.
If Mr. Houston wins seats in Halifax Regional Municipality, said Dr. Turnbill, then the opposition parties are really in trouble.
While some have described Nova Scotia’s opposition as weak, both Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender are young and intelligent with lots of experience in the legislature and party support, she notes. But neither are putting a dent in Mr. Houston’s lead and will end up splitting the vote he doesn’t get.
Part of the reason the campaign has been so low-key is that it was a snap election that caught the two opposition party leaders off guard. They need to do more to raise their profiles – something that’s difficult when algorithms essentially dictate what’s news and when cuts in local media have made it tougher than ever for leaders to get traction, said Jeff MacLeod, a political science professor at Mount Saint Vincent University.
The campaign has also been punctuated by low moments: the NDP finding statements incumbent PC candidate John Lohr made on abortion six years ago and an alleged vote-buying scandal involving Tim Hortons gift cards.
Elections Nova Scotia is still investigating following a complaint from the Liberal Party about a PC campaign manager in Lunenburg handing out gift cards for a single cup of Tim Hortons coffee at a drive-through while candidate Susan Corkum-Greek greeted voters. The campaign manager has since resigned but the incident remains hugely problematic, say both Dr. Turnbull and Dr. MacLeod.
“The $2.07 – is that going to move somebody’s vote? No. But you don’t want to have this kind of thing normalized in politics,” said Dr. Turnbull. “It is a bad thing and it’s a slippery slope to other things.”
Dr. MacLeod said Mr. Houston should have acknowledged the problem and taken more responsibility, but instead he deflected blame.
The election is Nov. 26.