People wear face masks as they walk along Sainte Catherine Street in Montreal, Aug. 1, 2020.Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press
Canada’s next flu season is expected to be milder than usual because of measures in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Based on lower levels of influenza in countries in the Southern Hemisphere, health officials anticipate fewer outbreaks as long as Canadians continue to practise physical distancing, wear masks and wash their hands.
“Those measures will help mitigate the impact of influenza,” said Danuta Skowronski, epidemiology leader for influenza and emerging respiratory pathogens at the BC Centre for Disease Control.
Will COVID-19 eventually become like the annual flu?
Australia, which is often an early indicator of the severity of flu for Canada, has had a dramatically milder influenza season. In a two-week period ending in late July, the country recorded just 72 laboratory-confirmed cases of flu, compared with 22,926 during the same time frame last year. Australia had high vaccination rates this year.
Canadian public-health officials are planning immunization campaigns emphasizing the benefits of flu shots – especially for high-risk individuals – in case a bad influenza season coincides with a possible resurgence of COVID-19, which could put great pressure on the health care system.
Provinces and territories have signed up for more flu vaccines, ordering a total of 14 million doses, up from 11.2 million last year, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.
In some areas, public-health officials are planning to offer flu shots earlier than usual and in new ways, such as drive-through clinics, because of coronavirus restrictions.
“We just can’t deal with both of those issues this year – COVID and influenza,” said Kieran Moore, Medical Officer of Health for the Kingston region. “If we don’t have a strong emphasis on prevention and immunization going into the fall, there will be significant repercussions for our communities.”
At the height of flu season, hospitals typically see increased emergency room visits and admissions for pneumonia. Add a surge of COVID-19 infections and officials worry that the health care system could be challenged.
In addition, doctors will rely more on laboratory testing this year because the symptoms of COVID-19 and influenza overlap, Dr. Moore said. However, he added that it’s not clear how labs will handle increased demand for testing for both viruses.
Dr. Skowronski said combatting the “double threat” of influenza and COVID-19 depends upon the public’s willingness to keep observing public-health measures as lockdown restrictions continue to lift. Canada’s flu season typically begins in November.
Dr. Moore said if there are outbreaks of influenza, it will signal that Canadians are not observing recommended measures to prevent COVID-19 as schools and more workplaces reopen and people gather indoors because of colder weather.
“If we start seeing a rise in influenza, that tells us as a community we’re not adhering and COVID could come back and then the double impact of influenza and COVID could be quite worrisome,” he said.
However, Allison McGeer, director of the infectious diseases epidemiology research unit at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, argued that because COVID-19 appears to be easier to control than the flu, whatever measures are in place to prevent coronavirus infections when influenza season hits may not be enough to avert flu outbreaks.
“We want to be doing as few restrictions as humanly possible but still not having the spread of COVID,” she said. “And if we’re at that level, then I think we will not be controlling the spread of flu as effectively.”
Dr. McGeer noted that predicting the severity of seasonal influenza is always difficult and the COVID-19 pandemic adds a layer of uncertainty.
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