New Brunswick registered a historic benchmark in 2018 but it is not one many will be lauding.
Births of new babies in the economically struggling eastern province fell for the 10th straight year, reaching a new all-time low in 2018 – besting the record low set in 2017 when just over 6,500 children were born – according to preliminary figures released by the province’s Vital Statistics Office Friday.
So far, just 5,448 babies have been born in New Brunswick in 2018, according to the published results. Those numbers underscore the grim demographic trend unfolding within the province, which was deemed Canada’s only shrinking province in 2017 following the release of census data. Two years before, deaths in New Brunswick began to surpass births.
“This matters tremendously,” said Richard Saillant, an economist, former federal public policy analyst and author of A Tale of Two Countries: How the Great Demographic Imbalance is Pulling Canada Apart. “There are no reasons to believe births with grow significantly anytime soon – the gap between deaths and births is likely to keep widening for at least 15 years,” he said.
The downward trends do not bode well for the future of the staggering economy in New Brunswick, which was downgraded from “stable” to “negative” earlier this year by Dominion Bond Rating Service, a major credit-rating agency. Since then, the province has feared a drop in its credit rating.
The province’s best hope for reversing course is what Mr. Saillant called “a major immigration boost.”
“The best way to make the population younger is to have way more immigrants,” he said. “Not only do families coming to Canada increase the working-age population immediately, they help prepare us for the future.”
Indeed, an influx of just over 2,500 immigrants and non-permanent residents was responsible for pushing New Brunswick’s population to a record high as of October, according to data released recently by Statistics Canada. As of Oct. 1st, the province’s population was 772,238.
Despite that good news, the data behind it showed that the province is still losing more residents to other provinces than it manages to attract. Between June 1 and October, nearly 4,000 people left New Brunswick for other provinces, while just over 3,000 made it their home.
Trevor Holder, the provincial minister responsible for the Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour, said his dual priorities are to “attract and retain new Canadians as well as bringing New Brunswickers home.”
“Demographic growth continues to be a priority for our government,” he said in a statement. “We are focused on attracting newcomers to our province. In the New Year, we will continue to focus on population growth,” it read.
The province’s needs are enormous.
Economists argue that New Brunswick needs to add 150,000 immigrants over the next 20 years. The private sector has begun to realize it has a role to play if those numbers are to be achieved, said Susan Chalmers-Gauvin.
Based in Moncton, Ms. Chalmers-Gauvin is CEO of the Atlantic Ballet and recently founded the Atlantic Immigration Summit to bring together business leaders, entrepreneurs, government officials and other stakeholders aimed at figuring out how to strengthen immigration in Atlantic Canada.
“Business leaders were very slow to get on board,” she said, adding: “I don’t think the general public relates low birth rates to immigration.”
At her ballet company, Ms. Chalmers-Gauvin employs 23 employees, 11 of whom are immigrants. Without them, her company, which has not been attractive to Canadian-born dancers, would have faltered.
Now, connecting other business leaders with immigrants – and holding their hands through the process of hiring them – has become a passion. “It is part of the education we have to do,” she said.