Morning Update: What to expect from Trump’s second term

Good morning. I’m Sierra Bein, newsletter editor, filling in for Danielle Groen. We asked readers to send Globe reporters their questions about the U.S. election. Today, we share some of the answers and more on what to expect from Donald Trump’s second term, along with the latest on B.C.’s avian flu case and Toronto’s traffic nightmare. But first:

Today’s headlines

• Canada Soccer seeks to discipline former men’s coach John Herdman, and women’s coach Bev Priestman is out after the drone spying investigation
• Ottawa intervenes and orders ports reopened, with binding arbitration to be imposed in a bid to resolve labour disputes
• Justin Welby resigns as Archbishop of Canterbury over the Church’s handling of sexual abuse allegations

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U.S. election

Your questions, answered

Donald Trump has begun the process of choosing a cabinet and other administration officials to deliver on the president-elect’s agenda. There are some familiar faces, such as Marco Rubio as potential secretary of state. As ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik will focus on promises to end the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s war in Gaza. Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the Department of Government Efficiency.

But there’s lots more to come from American politics, and more to learn about the impact on Canada. So we requested your questions about the election and Globe journalists Nathan VanderKlippe, Adrian Morrow, Marsha Lederman and Konrad Yakabuski answered them. Here are some highlights from the Q+A.

What impact would Trump have on immigration in Canada? Will we see more restrictions come in as a result of his policies?

VanderKlippe says: We’re already seeing some of this. See my colleagues’ reporting from today: Immigration Minister Marc Miller says the federal government is ready to work with the United States as it implements president-elect Donald Trump’s promises to crack down on immigration, but he wants anyone hoping to come to Canada to do so legally.

But if Trump makes good on even half his promises for deportations, it’s reasonable to expect upheaval at the U.S.-Canada border. Many migrants who entered the U.S. illegally did so in hopes of finding a better economic future. Many also left in fear of conditions in their home countries. If you were a migrant desperate to avoid returning home and you knew there was a border to Canada that extends for thousands of kilometres without visible obstacles to crossing – what would you do?

How will tariffs affect the Canadian economy?

Morrow says: The U.S. president has fairly wide latitude on trade policy: Even though it’s assigned to Congress in the Constitution, a series of laws over the years have delegated decision-making power to the president. That said, almost any tariffs Trump enacts would be challenged in the courts and he would certainly be under pressure from at least some Republican members of Congress and various businesses and business groups. So there might be some restraint there.

The effect would be sharp on Canada: $45-billion, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, or about $1,100 per Canadian, in lost annual income. Of course, this would not be distributed equally. Some industries, like auto manufacturing, oil and gas, and mining would be disproportionately hit with layoffs and reduced hours. The U.S. would also face higher prices on consumer goods (inflation!), but likely the effects would be less severe than they would be for Canada because their internal market is so huge.

How might Trump’s win influence talking points from Canada’s federal and provincial right wing?

Lederman says: My fear is that some parties on this side of the border will feel empowered/enabled/inspired by Trump’s win and the anti-trans talking points that got him there. We might not have noticed it here, but the anti-trans stance was central in Trump’s campaign, with a barrage of fearmongering TV ads highlighting that issue. This played to their base, but also, as this illuminating Wall Street Journal essay pointed out, to more middle-of-the-road voters who are tired of the culture wars. “Loving acceptance of trans people was transformed into speech control, and a consumer pool for Big Pharma’s hormone treatments. Empowerment of educators became disregard for the well-being of kids. Opposition to racism morphed into elaborate and profitable shaming rituals.” (Ann Bauer’s words, not mine.)

So, brace yourselves.

What unique role will JD Vance play in this administration, and what do you expect from him?

Yakabuski says: I think it’s safe to say that Vance could be as central to Trump’s second term as Joe Biden was to Barack Obama’s first term. That is, very important. We’re already seeing that in the formation of Trump’s cabinet. While it’s true that Trump does not like to share the limelight, he may make an exception for Vance, who is by all accounts the MAGA heir apparent. Vance was instrumental in helping Trump win the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He had credibility among Trump’s working-class base and is, in many ways, a much more articulate and coherent purveyor of Trumpism.

You can read more questions and more answers from the Q&A here.

The Shot

‘My sense is that traffic is never going to get better’

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We compiled data from traffic analytics firm INRIX, which show that the Greater Toronto Area’s gridlock problem doesn’t just feel worse, it is worse. In 2023 Torontonians spent 63 hours on average standing completely still in traffic – a 3-per-cent increase from pre-pandemic levels. That adds up to about three days a year wasted. But the volume of traffic is the same, hinting that road capacity rather than demand is a bigger part of the problem.

The Wrap

What else we’re following

At home: John Horgan, the former premier of British Columbia, has died at the age of 65, after a third battle with cancer

Abroad: At COP29, Canada launches a blended finance platform that will mobilize climate-focused investments

Avian flu questions: B.C. teen who caught the first known case of bird flu in Canada is in critical condition, source of infection still unknown

Travel answers: How well can you trust hotel ranking guides? Here’s some help to navigate the cluttered, confusing experience