Good morning. A storm has brewed over Trudeau’s refusal to give up the Liberal leadership – more on that below, along with Doug Ford’s cheques for Ontarians and the scourge of Halloween shrinkflation. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Top officials admit to sharing details on India’s foreign interference with The Washington Post that were not shared with Canadians
- Kamala Harris warns that Donald Trump would use prison sentences and the military to shut down his political opponents if elected
- Ottawa must combat residential school denialism by amending the Criminal Code, a special interlocutor says
Justin Trudeau in the House of Commons last week.Blair Gable/Reuters
Politics
The Liberal dilemma
The polls are bad: The Liberal Party has consistently trailed Conservatives by about 20 points. The forecast is dire: According to 338Canada’s projections, nearly two-thirds of the 153-member caucus can expect defeat in the next election, which could be called at any time. And though he may have just avoided a secret ballot on his political future, Justin Trudeau remains plenty unpopular among his own MPs (who keep trying to nudge him out) and the general public (more specifically, the 68 per cent who want him gone).
But Trudeau has steadfastly refused to offer the slightest indication that he’ll even consider stepping down. What gives? I spoke with Shannon Proudfoot, a feature writer in The Globe’s Ottawa bureau, to find out.
Let’s start with the obvious parallel. Democrats worried that Joe Biden would be a drag on the ticket, but the push to get him out only came together after that brutal debate made everyone say, wow, he’s old. What’s the narrative around Trudeau’s liability?
There are two distinct but tightly connected narratives. The first is that Trudeau is very unpopular, voters are sick of him and, as Charlottetown MP Sean Casey put it, Canadians have “tuned him out.”
The second narrative is more under the surface, but I think is more important. The Liberals themselves are very unpopular – they’re dragging behind the Conservatives by 20 points – and they face a massive loss of seats in the next election. It’s very, very hard to recover when the public feels like it’s time for a change. So I think there’s panic in the Liberal caucus about the party’s future and people’s individual job prospects. And for some of them, shoving Trudeau out the door and installing a new leader satisfies the instinct to do something rather than sitting still and waiting for disaster.
Do the Liberals have a formal mechanism to oust Trudeau? Or a Nancy Pelosi to give him the boot?
Unlike the Conservatives, the Liberals do not have a formal mechanism to force a leadership review or ouster. They also lack a Pelosi figure who both believes that the boss should go and is influential enough to bring down the hammer. Instead, a tentative whisper campaign of discontent in the spring revved up to a slightly more outside-voice exercise in the fall, which culminated in last week’s insurrection attempt: a very polite, anonymous letter and an airing of grievances at the caucus meeting. But that push for Trudeau to step down didn’t have any consequences if he failed to meet their deadline of Oct. 28, which he just brushed aside. What’s notable here is that the rebellious forces seem very timorous, and it’s clear Trudeau still holds the cards and the clout.
I don’t think I could tune out the pounding drumbeat of people’s disapproval. Why doesn’t Trudeau succumb to the pressure – and the polls?
It’s a weird thing to say about a guy who’s been famous from the moment he was born, but Trudeau has always been underestimated. When he first entered federal politics, he was dismissed as a lightweight – nice hair, no gravitas – and the way his team resurrected the husk of the Liberal Party a decade ago inspired lots of skeptics even within the partisan ranks. So he’s used to being doubted, and he seems to draw psychological comfort and verve from the idea that he’s been counted out before and proven people wrong. There’s also the simple fact that anyone who stays this long at this level of politics has defied a lot of odds, so it’s not surprising he’s willing to wage a staring contest over stepping down.
Will Trudeau, like Biden, get the boot?Yara Nardi/Reuters
Okay, but only two PMs have won four elections in a row, and they were both very popular and born in the 19th century: John A. Macdonald and Wilfrid Laurier.
Pierre Trudeau did win a fourth term, but it wasn’t consecutive. And Canadian governments tend to get levelled after about a decade in power, which is what the Liberals are approaching here. They’ve also faced a large and durable polling gap for the past year and a half.
But I would say that if the Liberal rebels are looking south of the border and dreaming of a Kamala Harris – style renaissance, that situation is wildly different. You didn’t have the fatigue of the governing party being around for a long time. There was a clear successor in the wings. And Donald Trump is, shall we say, a uniquely flawed candidate to run against.
So how much longer can Trudeau hang on?
This is basically the parlour-game question in Ottawa at the moment. A few weeks ago, I talked to the very smart political scientist Alex Marland, and he was persuasive on the idea that Trudeau will step down, but also that he’ll push it off as long as he possibly can. These sorts of decisions are really tough to reach, and no one wants to become yesterday’s man. I think that’s worth keeping in mind even as everyone in the Ottawa bubble gets – understandably – impatient with the game theory aspect of it.
Where would a Trudeau-less party leave the Liberals? And what should their pitch to voters be?
This is one of the problems: There isn’t an obvious successor. There are a few cabinet ministers – Mélanie Joly, François-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand – who are known to be interested in a leadership run, plus Mark Carney is always talked about as the next big thing. But it’s not clear who Liberals would line up behind or, more to the point, who would be the right response to the voter surliness that the Liberals have inspired.
I always think politicians should say to voters: Here’s where we messed up, here’s why we thought that was the right thing to do at the time, here’s what we’re going to do now instead. It treats the public like grown-ups who deserve to know how their country is being run, it offers the humility and honesty of admitting that people make mistakes, and it shows thoughtfulness about how to change directions. It is also never, ever going to happen.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Shot
‘It feels a bit scammy.’
Candy bars not (quite) to scale.Issha Marie Onoya/The Globe and Mail
How’s this for a trick: Halloween candy is getting smaller and smaller, thanks to the rising costs of labour, transport and, especially, cocoa. Grab another handful of KitKat bars and read more about Halloween shrinkflation here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Ontario Premier Doug Ford pledged to send 12.5 million residents a $200 tax-free rebate cheque next year, as his government mulls moving up the provincial election to 2025.
Abroad: At least 93 Palestinians were killed or missing – and dozens more wounded – in an Israeli strike on a northern Gaza residential building, an attack that the U.S. called “horrifying.”
The U.S. election (six days to go): Colorado’s eighth Congressional district is a fiercely contested piece of electoral turf – and one of the first districts ever drawn up by a non-partisan committee.
A big gift: AI pioneer and recent Nobel winner Geoffrey Hinton has donated half of his prize money to Water First, a Canadian charity that partners with Indigenous communities to provide clean drinking water.
A black hole: It’s deep in the process of eating the star beside it, but don’t stress – astronomers say this black hole formed gently.
A correction: One of the headlines in yesterday’s newsletter said Scott Moe won his fifth-consecutive mandate as Saskatchewan Premier; this is the party’s fifth-consecutive mandate.