Good morning. Get ready to start the clock on Canada’s election showdown – more on that below, along with the return of a stolen Winston Churchill portrait and the best time to cancel your Air Canada flight. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Manitoba Grand Chief Cathy Merrick lies in state
- Ottawa considers donating 200,000 doses from its large mpox vaccine stockpile to African countries
- Kamala Harris’s debate performance keeps Democrat momentum going in Washington’s bellwether Clallam County
Justin Trudeau at the Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C., yesterday.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Politics
Election scheming begins in earnest
The House of Commons returns on Monday, and the countdown to a federal election begins. With the NDP no longer supporting the minority Liberal government, a fatal non-confidence vote is pretty much guaranteed – the only question is when it will all go down. And to answer that, we need to break out the calendars. The opposition has just a few windows while Parliament is in session to put forward a motion to topple the Liberals.
That leaves ample room for Justin Trudeau to try to game the election call. So is it shaping up to be a fall sprint to the polls, a festive Christmas campaign or springtime at the ballot box? I called The Globe’s chief political writer, Campbell Clark, to find out.
Let’s start with something sexy: the parliamentary calendar. When can opposition parties actually bring down the government with a non-confidence vote?
There are different kinds of confidence votes. Some are automatic: The government falls if it cannot pass money bills, such as budgets. But the opposition parties are allotted a set number of days – seven or eight in each period of roughly three months – when they can put forward their own motions, including a non-confidence motion. Most of those days belong to the Official Opposition, now the Conservatives. However, the government controls the scheduling of those dates, with a few exceptions, so there’s lots of opportunity for games around the timing.
Would it be a good move for the Liberals to book that first round of opposition motion days early in the fall sitting?
The Liberals can gamble that the NDP and Bloc don’t want an election just yet. The Bloc has signalled they’re in no rush; they’re doing okay right now in the polls, and they probably want to take a few more whacks at Pierre Poilievre and try to extract a few more things from Justin Trudeau. The NDP’s pharmacare bill hasn’t passed the Senate yet, and it would look stupid to let that die when it was at the centre of the Liberal-NDP deal. Also, there are upcoming provincial elections in B.C. and Saskatchewan and only so many New Democrat organizers in this country. They can’t manage three campaigns at once. So the Liberals can assume the NDP and Bloc don’t want a federal election – but stuff it in their face too much and they might just call the bluff.
What about the alternative – just delay that first batch of opposition days for as long as possible?
This is a straight-up stall tactic, and only requires the government to schedule all seven opposition days of the fall sitting near the deadline, which is Dec. 10. If the opposition parties vote to defeat the government in early December, it means an election over the Christmas holidays. That is unpalatable for most but not impossible: It happened to Paul Martin’s government in 2005.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said yesterday it's "put up or shut up time for the NDP."Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
It seems plausible, then, that the opposition will wait till the spring to bring down the government. What does that extra time buy the Liberals? And is there enough runway left to replace Trudeau with someone new?
The Liberals are far behind in opinion polls, so more time just gives them a little more hope of coming back. They can hope for a good spin from the U.S. election or a major mistake by Poilievre. It brings them time to plan an election campaign and to present government policies that they think will help their re-election chances. And they might be able to engineer the timing so that they are defeated on a spring budget packed full of goodies.
As for whether the Liberals have time to change leader: Yes. Trudeau can resign anytime. But if he did, there would be the possibility that the opposition could trigger an election before a new leader – and prime minister – is chosen, leaving the Liberals in disarray. That’s unlikely for a couple of reasons, but there would still have to be a relatively quick leadership race. And the new PM could expect to be defeated as soon as he meets the Commons.
What do you expect the Conservatives to do with this time?
For one thing, the Conservatives will present non-confidence motions when they can. If the NDP or Bloc don’t support such motions, the Conservatives will attack those parties for propping up the Liberals and keeping Justin Trudeau in power. That helps the Conservatives argue they are the only real option for change. In the meantime, the pre-election campaign begins.
What’s the mood like in Ottawa when this sort of election looms?
There is a palpable feeling of unpredictability and scheming in such times. That feeling hasn’t quite hit yet, but it usually fills Ottawa with rumours and gossip about when the government will fall. There are back-channel talks between parties about key votes that sometimes go down to the wire. In Parliament, bills still get passed but the government has to be careful – and a lot of committees degenerate into nutty obstruction tactics. The opposition can now get together more easily to filibuster, or push damaging hearings, or bring forward embarrassing witnesses. The Liberals will have to spend a lot of time and energy on parliamentary matters that till now they could safely ignore.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Shot
Return of the Roaring Lion
Churchill's portrait jetted off to Genoa.Yousuf Karsh
That formidable scowl on Winston Churchill’s face? It’s the result of photographer Yousuf Karsh snatching away his beloved cigar just before taking the shot. Now imagine the look had Churchill learned that a thief stole his portrait right off the wall of a luxury Ottawa hotel and replaced it with a fake. Happily, three years later, the real Roaring Lion has resurfaced in Italy. Read more about its journey home here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
Abroad: A day after the U.S. debate, where Donald Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinkin was in Kyiv showing support for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
At home: Having already intervened in the WestJet and railway disputes, could the federal government step in to ward off a pilot strike at Air Canada? (Answer: Yes, it could, but doesn’t seem in a rush to do so.)
Buckle up: If it does look like a pilot strike next week, maybe don’t rush to rebook your Air Canada flights – experts say it’s better to wait until your trip is actually cancelled.
Pony up: High-end restaurants such as Nobu and Mott 32 are betting that Toronto diners will shell out major bucks for well-hyped lobster salad ($75) and abalone soup ($168 a bowl).