Morning Update: The NDP says no deal

Good morning. It’s Dave McGinn again, The Globe and Mail’s parenting and family life reporter filling in for Danielle Groen. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s move to end his party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals marks a major shift in Canada’s political landscape, and we continue to track the fallout. More on that below, along with the closing of a storied photojournalism program, but first:

Today’s headlines

• Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has alleged, in documents filed in federal court, that three principal shareholders in Wealth One Bank of Canada were vulnerable to coercion by China and may have engaged in money laundering as part of Beijing’s foreign interference operations.
• Despite the success of the polio vaccination campaign in Gaza, diplomatic efforts to secure a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war have faltered.
• Rexall’s American owner has sold the pharmacy chain to Canadian private-equity firm Birch Hill Equity Partners, including the 385 brick-and-mortar pharmacies as well as the Well.ca e-commerce site.

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No deal

Goodbye supply and confidence deal

Globe Ottawa Bureau’s Marieke Walsh sat down with Decibel host Menaka Raman-Wilms to discuss why the NDP pulled out of the supply and confidence deal that has been supporting the minority Liberal government, and what happens next. Here’s a snippet of their conversation:

So the supply-and-confidence agreement is now over. This was of course the agreement where the NDP props up the minority Liberals during important votes in exchange for policy moves essentially that the NDP wants. Now that it’s over, what does this mean?

Well, first of all, “supply-and-confidence” is like the most Ottawa boring word for a deal. That actually means that the fourth-place party in the House of Commons was propping up the first-place party to make sure they could get their agenda through the House of Commons. And in exchange, the NDP got policy wins like dental care, like pharmacare, but they didn’t get political wins. We didn’t see a change in the polling as a result of those policy wins. And so now we see them trying to create distance with the minority Liberals who we know are led by a, currently, very unpopular leader named Justin Trudeau. What this means next depends on which vantage point you are looking at for the Liberals.

But, just to be clear, this action today does not mean that an election is triggered, right?

No, absolutely not. That could only be triggered if Justin Trudeau walks over to the Governor-General’s house and asks for an election, which is highly unlikely. Or if there is a vote of non-confidence in the House of Commons and the opposition parties bring down the government. What the NDP said on Wednesday is that the Liberals can no longer automatically count on the NDP for support to continue in the minority government that we currently have, which is already a pretty long minority government compared to others. They will now move to a case-by-case negotiation with the government on whether or not they get support.

The Liberals have not been doing as well in the polls. It sounds like that was a real factor here. Then the NDP’s decision was to kind of distance themselves from the government.

I think that the general dynamics in the Canadian electorate are likely the factor. So it’s not just that the Liberals are polling badly. It’s also that Justin Trudeau himself is doing poorly in the polling. So when you look at the Nanos research tracking, it shows that the Conservatives have essentially held on to and now really stabilized at a double-digit lead ahead of the Liberal Party. But it’s not just that, it’s also that Justin Trudeau now is polling at a double-digit deficit to Pierre Poilievre as preferred prime minister.

Let me ask you about the response. Let’s start with the Prime Minister. How did Trudeau respond to this announcement?

I think it’s fair to say this largely caught the Liberals off-guard. At the cabinet retreat in Halifax last week, Liberal House leader Karina Gould told reporters point blank, she was confident the deal will sustain until the end of June. And that was really their cover, not just for their own management of the government’s affairs, but also politically, they are in a bad spot right now and their argument is that if they have enough time the political winds will shift as the economic wins improve.

And how has Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre responded to all of this?

The Conservatives essentially are now calling the NDP’s bluff. Pierre Poilievre held a press conference in Nanaimo, B.C. just a few hours after the NDP announced their news on Wednesday. And he said, if you’re really serious about ending this deal, then you will vote no confidence at your earliest opportunity in the House of Commons.

Could we see a confidence vote soon after the House resumes?

I would be shocked if the Conservatives do not force a confidence vote at their earliest opportunity.

This interview from The Decibel has been condensed and edited.

• More politics: Liberal national campaign director steps down day after NDP deal ends
• Robyn Urback says: Jagmeet Singh to NDP caucus: We’ve accomplished basically nothing, so our work here is done
• Campbell Clark says: Singh opens the Layton playbook for a longshot election gamble

The Shot

‘Now, we’re at risk of losing history’

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The photojournalism program at Loyalist College in Belleville, Ont., one of the most important of its kind in Canada, is soon to be shuttered. The school announced late last year it would be closing, with students who started the two-year program last September being allowed to finish their studies.

The program has produced some of the most talented and renowned photojournalists since its launch in 1985. But the college says declining enrolments means the program can no longer be supported.

The Wrap

What else we’re following

At home: Campaign signs are everywhere in the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Emard–Verdun ahead of a Sept. 16 by-election, but images of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are conspicuously absent, while photos of the leaders of the other major parties are alongside those of their candidates.

Abroad: German police shot dead an Austrian gunman in Munich near the Israeli consulate on Thursday. In the aftermath of the event politicians stressed the importance of protecting Israeli sites in the city.

Paralympics in Paris: Canadian swimmer Aurelie Rivard wins gold in Paris, while fellow Canadian swimmer Tess Routliffe nabs bronze.

Trump movie in Toronto: Globe film editor Barry Hertz traces the “unusual journey” of the new Canadian co-production of The Apprentice, a biopic of Donald Trump, has had from production to tis premiere.