Good morning. The Bloc Québécois puts the Liberal Party on notice – more on that below, along with the latest from Lebanon and an internal investigation into Frank Stronach’s history at Magna.
Today’s headlines
- Israel takes casualties as it steps up its attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; An Israeli strike hits central Beirut
- Canada is prepared to use military aircraft for evacuations from Lebanon if the situation gets worse, the Defence Minister says
- U.S. prosecutors detail their evidence in the Trump election subversion case
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet after yesterday's vote.Blair Gable/Reuters
Politics
The Liberals, the Bloc and the $16-billion question
Good news for the Bloc Québécois: Yesterday, in a 181 to 143 vote, the House of Commons approved its motion to swiftly pass its private member’s bill expanding seniors benefits. Bad news for the Bloc Québécois: Any private member’s bill that involves spending tax dollars needs a royal recommendation from the government, and all 143 of those objections came from the Liberal Party. Oh, but bad news too for the Liberals: Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet warned that if they don’t pass this bill by Oct. 29, alongside another on supply management, he will work with other opposition parties to bring the government down. “The electoral alert is a little higher,” Blanchet said after yesterday’s vote.
What’s Blanchet’s play here? What does it now mean for the Liberals? And how soon might we head to the polls? I asked The Globe’s current affairs columnist, Robyn Urback, to make sense of it all.
Remind me how we got here: What does the Bloc want when it comes to seniors benefits, and why do they want it?
The Bloc wants to right what they’re calling discrimination – okay, there, Mr. Blanchet – in the dispersal of Old Age Security benefits. In 2022, the Liberal government hiked OAS payments for those 75 and older by 10 per cent, meaning people who received a full pension, one that was not subject to clawbacks, would get an extra $800 in the first year. The Bloc wants the same for seniors aged 65 to 74, because, in layman’s terms, it’s only fair. What they’re not saying is that the proposal plays well among seniors in Quebec.
How much money does that proposal shake out to?
The feds already spend about $80-billion on seniors benefits annually – a figure expected to grow to $100-billion in 2028-29. That’s more than is spent on health care transfers, defence, and family and disability benefits. The Bloc is asking the government to spend an additional $16-billion over five years to boost OAS for younger seniors. Let’s not forget that there is a benefit specifically geared toward low-income seniors: the Guaranteed Income Supplement. Blanchet, however, is asking for a hike to the benefit that isn’t means-tested. That means younger generations are essentially on the hook to subsidize the retirement of a generation that is comparatively better off.
You humbly suggested that the Liberals tell the Bloc to take their ultimatum and kick rocks. They followed that advice yesterday.
I don’t think there was any way the Liberals could have justified supporting this bill. One: It makes no economic sense. Younger generations are experiencing higher rates of poverty and economic insecurity than older Canadians. Two: Taking from the young to give to the old doesn’t jibe with the government’s “fairness for every generation” schtick, which was the title of their last budget. If the Liberals think they have any shot at winning back the support of younger Canadians – and it seems like they think that, based on their recent announcement about housing reform – they won’t want to burden themselves with having to explain something like this.
If the Liberals were never going to give into the Bloc’s ultimatum, what’s Blanchet’s political calculation here?
Blanchet’s political calculation is the most straightforward of all party leaders: Figure out what will play best in Quebec, and do that. He is unburdened by conflicting values or balancing competing priorities across the country. His priority is Quebec: its language laws, its dairy farmers, its retirees and so on. It’s a good gig if you can get it.
Blanchet said if he didn’t get his motion on seniors benefits, he’d work to topple the minority government. Is it curtains for the Liberals?
The Bloc and Conservatives don’t have enough votes to bring down the government. Until now, the Bloc has supported the Liberals, making what the NDP does sort of moot. But that changes if the Bloc can no longer be relied upon to vote with them. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh would then have to decide if his party is election-ready, and if not, how he will continue to spin his support for this government – the same one he called “selfish” and “beholden” to corporate interests.
So what’s next?
I guess we’ll have to see what happens after Blanchet’s Oct. 29 deadline. Maybe they’ll hammer out some sort of negotiated agreement that allows the Bloc to save face but doesn’t make the Liberals look like total hypocrites on their “fairness for every generation” mantra. Maybe the Liberals will indeed lose the Bloc’s support, but the NDP will prop them up to survive another day. Or maybe something entirely unexpected happens. Call me cynical, but I think that fatal non-confidence vote will have almost nothing to do with the issues, and everything to do with when the opposition parties feel they are best poised to wage a competitive election campaign.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Shot
Hudson Bay’s beluga buddies
They're having a whale of a time.Shane Gross/The Globe and Mail
Some 55,000 beluga whales – more than a quarter of the entire species – make their way to the southwest coast of Hudson Bay every summer after the sea ice breaks up. Read more about what they’re teaching scientists here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
Abroad: The Lebanese government says one million people have been forced to leave their homes as the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies. The Globe’s Eric Reguly spoke with some of the families who ended up in a Beirut hotel without water, electricity or beds.
At home: Auto parts giant Magna has launched an internal investigation into founder Frank Stronach’s history at the company, after the billionaire businessman was charged with multiple sexual-assault crimes.
In the air: Having lost $155.3-million in its first three quarters, Air Transat is considering an 80-person layoff to try to weather the financial turbulence.
On the page: Last year, Reese Witherspoon’s book club picks sold 2.3 million copies – and next year, she’ll come out with her own novel, co-written with suspense giant Harlan Coben.