Good morning. Iran has taken a calculated stand so far in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict – more on that below, along with Ontario’s big plan for an even bigger tunnel and TikTok’s new restaurant critics. But first:
Today’s headlines
- The Liberals survive a non-confidence vote as the Conservative motion fails 211-120
- Ottawa will host a meeting on the return of abducted Ukrainian children and further prisoner exchanges in the Russian war
- New findings on diabetic limb loss highlight a heavy, and preventable, burden on First Nations
An Israeli airstrike hit Maisara, north of Beirut, yesterday.Bilal Hussein/The Associated Press
Middle East
Under the influence
As the United States works feverishly to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the two sides continue to trade fire across Lebanon’s southern border. Hezbollah attempted to strike Tel Aviv yesterday, while Israel said it attacked roughly 300 targets. More than 650 people have been killed in Lebanon over the past three days, including two Canadians, and the United Nations estimates at least 90,000 people have been newly displaced.
There’s another key player in this escalating conflict: Iran, which founded and funds Hezbollah. In a speech to the UN General Assembly this week, Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, said his country did not want to be dragged into a wider war – but with Israel’s military now preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon, how much longer will Iran remain on the sidelines? To better understand Iran’s calculations, I called Thomas Juneau, an associate professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa who specializes in security in the Middle East. Here’s what he had to say.
What’s the nature of the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran?
The relationship is a symbiotic one. Iran primarily provides military support, but it goes beyond that: It’s a very close and integrated political relationship. Iran provides technical advice, training, intelligence, and it also provides cash. Nobody knows the exact amount, although one number that floats around is US$700-million per year. But Hezbollah is not just a puppet of Iran. Hezbollah is a very powerful actor with domestic interests of its own.
So what does Iran get in return?
You often hear that Hezbollah is the crown jewel in the Axis of Resistance – the most powerful of the network of non-state actors, armed actors and terrorist groups that Iran supports in the region. Lebanon is a tiny country, but it’s sandwiched between Syria and Israel, so it provides Iran with a platform right at Israel’s northern border to put tremendous pressure on Israel. For an economy that’s struggling like Iran’s, $700-million is a lot of money, but the return on investment is pretty good.
You’ve said – including on The Decibel last month – that Iran wants to operate within a limited, grey zone of conflict. Is that still the case?
I’m a bit shakier now, because tensions are so high, but I still think it’s what Iran prefers. If there’s an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel wins, because it’s much more powerful militarily. That’s also true for Iran. And Iran is a rational actor that understands it maximizes its gains against Israel when conflict is contained. Iran can hit and poke and provoke Israel, but everything stays under the threshold of open warfare. I don’t think we’re quite in open warfare, but we are at a very high level of violence. Israel is imposing significant damage on Hezbollah, which is not good for Iran at all.
What’s Israel’s calculus here?
I still think that Israel wants to avoid a wider war, though I don’t think its restraints are as clear. For years, the view in Israel was one of containing Hezbollah. But more and more – and not just since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks – that has been seen as unsustainable and unacceptable for Israel’s security. There’s been more pressure on the government, including from within, to deal with Hezbollah. That includes imposing a lot more military pressure to intimidate Hezbollah and to force it away from the border with Israel, maybe with the creation of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran at the UN General Assembly.DAVE SANDERS/The New York Times News Service
Iran’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian, just spoke at the UN about playing a “constructive role” in world affairs. Does he factor into these rising tensions?
Not much, because the President of Iran is not the boss. The number-one individual, the decider, in Iran is the Supreme Leader. And while the President is saying these very nice things in New York, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is tweeting very aggressive things.
What is Khamenei’s red line, then?
If there’s all-out war – not just between Israel and Hezbollah but between Israel and Iran – the U.S. jumps in. It’s very hard to conceive of a scenario where the U.S. just sits back, and that makes it even more dangerous for Iran. At the same time, Israel is significantly weakening two of Iran’s most useful partners, Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran might very well respond with cyber attacks or missile attacks, but I think it has little choice at this point but to remain restrained, because it cannot afford that escalation.
Knowing that, what are the guardrails on Israel?
It’s a good question. In Israel, there is extremely intense political debate about the next steps for the war with Hamas and with Hezbollah. There is a perception – and a frustration – that the U.S. has been restraining Israel. There are also a lot of critics who want the U.S. to restrain Israel much more.
Israel’s army chief just told troops to prepare for a possible ground invasion in Lebanon. What would that mean?
Israel’s missile capacity and air defences are vastly superior to Hezbollah’s. But once you get into a ground war, Israel is at risk of becoming bogged down for a long time. That’s when the damage to Lebanon – its institutions, its people, its economy – becomes much more serious, and that’s where, politically, it becomes extremely explosive for Israel. Israel has painful memories of its occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000. The war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah was basically a draw. Militarily, Hezbollah is much more powerful than Hamas, and Israel has not been able to decisively defeat Hamas after 11 months. So if there’s a ground war in Lebanon, that’s a game changer.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Shot
‘I’ll tell you one thing: We’re getting this tunnel built’
Toronto traffic on Highway 401.CARLOS OSORIO/Reuters
Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to build one of the world’s longest tunnels beneath North America’s busiest highway – a 50-or-so-kilometre project that would sit under the 401. Read more about the potential multibillion-dollar dig here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: Canada’s 2024 wildfire season is on track to be the second largest in at least two decades. The largest? You guessed it: 2023.
Abroad: Russian political strategist Maxim Shugalei – imprisoned for 18 months in Libya, targeted by Canadian sanctions and glorified in three Kremlin-backed propaganda films – has been arrested in Chad in a blow to Russia’s disinformation campaign.
Watch party: The reign of the restaurant critic is long over. Food influencers are now cramming all that power into 100-second TikTok reviews instead.
Heavy metal: The world is a scary place. These are uncertain economic times. Should we all just put our money in gold?