Good morning. We’re following the latest in the diplomatic rift between Ottawa and New Delhi – more on that below, along with the case for a larger Bank of Canada interest rate cut and new hopes for a lost Montreal delicacy. But first:
Today’s headlines
- At the foreign interference inquiry today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to testify. On Tuesday, PMO staff said nobody told them about CSIS’s request to surveil a Liberal powerbroker in 2021.
- U.S. warns Israel to boost humanitarian aid into Gaza or risk losing weapons funding
- Canada declares Samidoun a terrorist entity in a joint move with the U.S.
Justin Trudeau and Narendra Modi in New Delhi in 2023.Sean Kilpatrick/The Associated Press
Canada-India
Tit-for-tat tensions rise
The already frosty relations between Canada and India became decidedly frostier this week. First, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the RCMP alleged that Indian government agents are tied to homicides, extortions and other violent criminal activities in Canada. Then, Ottawa expelled New Delhi’s top diplomat and five other consular officials for India’s failure to co-operate with police investigations. India rejected those claims as “preposterous” and swiftly expelled six Canadian diplomats in return. And yesterday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh called for an emergency House of Commons study into the RCMP allegations, including steps that could be taken to keep Canadians safe.
To better understand what’s going on and how this escalating rift might play out, I called Sanjay Ruparelia, Jarislowsky Democracy Chair at Toronto Metropolitan University and Senior Fellow of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Here’s what he had to say.
Just how bad are relations between Canada and India right now?
I think this is the lowest point in diplomatic relations as far as anyone can remember. The timing is surprising, because as recently as June, there were indications that there was a real attempt behind the scenes, at the highest level, to address the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. So I was quite stunned to hear the announcement by the Prime Minister and the RCMP.
What might explain that timing?
There are several dimensions in play. The Hogue Commission already identified India as a major actor in foreign interference, along with China. There’s been growing criticism that the Trudeau government has been lax on questions of foreign interference. And, of course, the Prime Minister appears today before the commission. That has fuelled some speculation in India that this is a political campaign to drum up support. It could also be pure coincidence.
Why did the RCMP release these allegations, even though charges haven’t been laid yet?
They said it was because the threat to public safety, and particularly to Canadian members of the South Asian community, is real and growing. Canadian authorities have been clear that they have shared evidence implicating senior officials of the Indian government in Canada in criminal activities. The Indian government refuted that, which suggests that whatever evidence was shared, India rejects as not conclusive. So it raises questions of what counts as credible evidence in both countries.
A cyclist pedals past Canada's High Commission in New Delhi.Manish Swarup/The Associated Press
Meanwhile, India is taking a very different response to U.S. allegations that an Indian official was involved in the attempted murder of a Sikh activist in New York.
The contrast is quite striking. The United States unsealed the indictment against the man accused of this plot – a very detailed, 80-page dossier that is in the public domain. But for the most part, there’s been a clear attempt to keep that issue separate from the growing ties between Washington and New Delhi, whether on defence or security or strategic partnership. In Canada, that’s been very difficult. It’s striking that it’s Prime Minister Trudeau who stood up and made these allegations against India in the House of Commons last year and again this week. That’s as politically significant as you can get. Nothing like that was done in the U.S., where the issue is handled by agencies, and there’s been a high level of co-operation between the countries. It underscores that bilateral relations between India and the U.S. are of a different order of significance and importance for both countries than Indo-Canadian relations.
How could this diplomatic rift affect the Indian community in Canada?
The most important diplomatic representatives of both countries will be absent by the end of this week, and the worry is that consular services will shut down. The Indian diaspora is the largest diaspora in Canada, as well as the largest segment of foreign students in Canada, who already have to deal with the new restrictions put in place by the Canadian government. What will happen if they can’t get visas renewed or visas to return home?
There are also worries about what will happen within the community. A large segment of the South Asian community is Hindu; a large segment is Sikh. Even before last year’s allegations, there were a number of troubling incidents, such as the desecration of Hindu and Sikh places of worship by people in the opposite community. It’s a great concern that rising tensions across the country don’t get out of hand.
What will you be watching for next?
We’ll have to see how authorities in Delhi and Ottawa interact with each other over the coming week. But the U.S. is the most important ally for both Canada and India. Given the allegations that have been raised, will there be pressure by Washington behind the scenes to get New Delhi to co-operate with Canada? At the moment, it’s hard to see how this impasse can be broken without Washington having some role to play.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Shot
‘The empire of the Montreal melon has faded’
Ken Taylor has helped the revival of the Montreal Green Nutmeg melon.Selena Phillips-Boyle/The Globe and Mail
France has Champagne. Russia has caviar. And Montreal had the Green Nutmeg melon, a fine-dining delicacy that fell out of favour during the Great Depression. A new project hopes to revive interest in the massive gourd – read more about its efforts here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: A surprisingly soft inflation report – just 1.6 per cent! – is fuelling bets that the Bank of Canada will opt for a larger rate cut next week.
Abroad: As Israel continues to inflict damage on Hezbollah, Lebanon wonders if there’s a path to rebuild a functioning state.
On stage: At a Pennsylvania town hall, Donald Trump abruptly stopped taking questions and started bopping to the music instead – but not every musician was feeling the vibe.
Listening in: Staff at a long-term care home in Scarborough have found an increasing number of surveillance devices installed without their knowledge.
Cashing out: Which Canadian credit card is right for your financial needs? Globe journalists will answer your questions today at 1 pm ET. You can submit a question right here.