Good morning. I’m Sierra Bein, The Globe’s newsletter editor, filling in today for Danielle Groen. The results of B.C.’s upcoming election will tell us a lot about the strength of the Conservative brand in Canada – more on that below, along with the Assembly of First Nations on Ottawa’s shell game and the Spanish town drawing in Russians, Ukrainians and Poles. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Hezbollah fires a missile at Tel Aviv in its deepest strike yet after Israel’s bombardment in Lebanon
- A rising number of Canadians support major health care reform, a survey finds
- The Bloc and NDP rebuff the Conservatives’ attempt to bring down the Liberal government
B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad earlier this summer.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Politics
The Conservative comeback in B.C.
The Conservatives have not won an election in B.C. in almost a century, but they’re now the governing NDP’s main competition – and as of the latest polling, they’re in a dead heat. Can they pull off an upset in the provincial election on Oct. 19? Justine Hunter, The Globe’s B.C. politics reporter, has followed the ups and downs of B.C. premiers since 1988 – so we figured she’d be a good person to ask. Here’s what she had to say about how the campaign, which kicked off this week, is shaping up.
Can you catch us up on what happened with BC United, the former BC Liberal party?
This is a great reminder that you can never say you’ve seen it all in B.C. politics. The Liberals ruled this province for 16 years until 2017, when the NDP formed a minority government with support from the Greens. The Liberals chose a new leader, Kevin Falcon, who championed the BC United rebrand, which didn’t go especially well. Mr. Falcon kicked John Rustad out of his caucus for questioning the science of climate change, and Mr. Rustad went on to revive the near-extinct BC Conservative party. Weeks before this election campaign started, BC United faced vanishing support and an empty war chest. So Mr. Falcon made a deal with Mr. Rustad and pulled BC United out of the campaign, pledging to back the Conservatives.
What are the main issues in this election campaign?
Based on public-opinion polls, the feedback I get from readers, and conversations with fellow British Columbians, there are some consistent themes: access to health care, affordability and public safety. Inflation has eroded people’s standard of living and B.C. public-safety concerns related to mental health and addictions were exacerbated by B.C.’s experiment with decriminalization of illicit drugs. And we’re still seeing frequent emergency room closings, and distressing delays in accessing care.
How does the public feel about the NDP?
The public polls show that the NDP’s support has been running somewhere in the neighbourhood of 45 per cent of leaning and decided voters. What’s changed is that there is now only one other main party in contention – the Conservatives. In the last poll I saw, they were in a statistical dead heat with the NDP.
What should we know about BC Conservative Leader John Rustad?
Mr. Rustad has been a member of the Legislative Assembly in B.C. since 2005. He supported policies when he was part of the BC Liberals that he now disavows: The Liberals introduced the carbon-pricing regime, supported expansion of supervised drug-consumption sites, and brought in sexual orientation and gender identity education in schools. He says he regrets getting the “so-called vaccine” for COVID-19. In 2019, he voted in favour of the province’s law enabling the principles of the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples – he told the House that it was “the right thing to do” – but now he wants to repeal that law. I’m still watching for more clues about where Mr. Rustad wants to take this province.
Ideologically, how do the NDP and Conservatives in B.C. compare to their federal counterparts?
The provincial and federal NDP are affiliated. As a recent example, federal Leader Jagmeet Singh signalled on Sept. 12 that his party plans to oppose the current carbon-pricing regime for Canadian consumers. I happened to be interviewing BC NDP Leader David Eby when that news came in and he initially hedged – but by the end of the day, he had come out with an identical position. That’s a huge pivot for Mr. Eby.
The provincial and federal Conservatives are not formally tied, but Mr. Rustad knows that a significant reason for his party’s meteoric rise in popularity is because of the success of Pierre Poilievre. He’s adopted the “common sense” slogan and has shared photos of the two leaders together. In July, Mr. Poilievre started referring to supervised drug-consumption sites as “drug dens,” and Mr. Rustad mimicked that language this week.
In your recent report, you say that what happens in B.C.’s election could be a “bellwether for the coming federal election.” How so?
If the BC Conservatives score a win on Oct. 19 with a party that earned fewer than 2 per cent of the vote in the last provincial election, that’s going to tell you a lot about the strength of the Conservative brand in Canada today. I expect federal politicians of all stripes will be learning something in this campaign about what slogans and tactics work – or don’t.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Shot
‘It’s a Plan B in case the war trespasses into Poland’
Torrevieja in southeastern Spain.Anna Liminowicz/The Globe and Mail
Expats from Ukraine, Russia and Poland are snapping up property across Spain’s Costa Blanca – but they’re finding little reprieve from the tensions back home. Read more here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: With MPs increasingly worried about threats and confrontational protests, the Parliamentary Protective Service says it will boost security on and around Parliament Hill.
Abroad: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is bogged down in controversy just three months into the job – and his public-approval ratings have sunk even lower than his highly unpopular predecessor, Rishi Sunak.
Shell game: The Assembly of First Nations believes most of the contract spending Ottawa says it’s awarding to Indigenous businesses has only loose ties to Indigenous people.
Judgment call: Canada’s anti-money-laundering watchdog terminated a senior intelligence officer earlier this year over his alleged handling of a suspicious transaction report, documents say.