Good morning. Every conceivable poll and pundit expects Keir Starmer will become Britain’s next prime minister today – more on that below, along with Canada’s history-making defence chief and a record-breaking win at the Tour de France. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Biden faces increasing pressure from within his own party to step down
- Trudeau resists calls from MPs to meet immediately with his entire Liberal caucus
- After a devastating church fire in Toronto, experts warn that hundreds more historic buildings lack proper protections
It's very, very (very!) likely Keir Starmer becomes Britain's PM today.Claudia Greco/Reuters
British election
No-drama Starmer heads to Downing Street
After 14 years in power and five prime ministers – only two of whom actually won a general election – the Conservatives look to be done in Britain. It’s been a bumpy ride for the country: massive public-spending cuts in the name of austerity; a hasty Brexit referendum, followed by a lengthy withdrawal; the pandemic; multiple pandemic parties; multiple financial crises; and one leader whose tenure couldn’t outlast the shelf life of lettuce.
Today, six weeks after a soggy Rishi Sunak called the election, Britons cast their votes – and if all goes according to polls, Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer will become prime minister in a landslide win. The problems he inherits are considerable, including sluggish economic growth, skyrocketing National Health Service wait times and huge surges in homelessness and hunger. So, what can we expect from the man one colleague approvingly calls “No-drama Starmer” (and Boris Johnson, less approvingly, called “Captain Crasheroonie Snoozefest”)? I asked The Globe’s Europe Correspondent, Paul Waldie.
What’s the mood like in Britain right now?
People are angry, fed up, exasperated. The health service is in crisis, prices for most consumer goods are still high despite a drop in inflation, and the government can’t seem to get a handle on immigration. Voters are mad at the Tories, but many don’t seem keen on any party.
I’m kind of flabbergasted that the Tories brought out Boris Johnson to help make their final pitch. What does that say about the state of the party?
I think it’s a sign of how desperate the Conservative campaign has become and how bad Sunak is as a campaigner. Johnson has many detractors, but he remains far more popular among the Tory faithful than Sunak. I hear all the time from Conservative voters that the party shouldn’t have dumped Boris.
Starmer’s campaign message has been: change. That started from within – as soon as he became leader in 2020, after Labour’s worst election defeat in 85 years, he said his mission was to make the party “electable” again. How has he gone about doing that?
Starmer has been ruthless about pulling Labour toward the centre. He has transformed the party’s hierarchy and sidelined his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and Corbyn’s hard-left allies. He’s also ditched long-held Labour policies such as widespread nationalization, increased public spending and a wariness about NATO. Labour is now pro-worker, pro-business, pro-cuts to immigration and pro-police. And there’s no more talk about a second referendum on Brexit.
Labour has been on top of the polls from the jump, but they produced what the Telegraph called the dullest election manifesto on record. What has Starmer actually promised?
Labour’s campaign has been dull by design. They haven’t promised anything radical other than a vague notion about setting up something called Great British Energy, a public company that is supposed to partner with industry to deliver clean power. They’ve promised not to increase taxes, to cut immigration and to spend better on health care. Basically, it’s a platform designed not to rock the boat.
It's Brexecution Day for Sunak's Conservative Party.HENRY NICHOLLS/Getty Images
But things may change after a gigantic victory. Given the scale of Britain’s problems, how ambitious do you think a Prime Minister Starmer will be?
He’ll be very ambitious. Labour doesn’t get into government very often, so he will want to make his mark right away. He will likely be more interventionist in the economy, especially on workers’ rights and public-sector pay disputes. He also has big plans to tackle illegal boat crossings from France. Internationally, he’s expected to move Britain closer to the European Union and a bit further away from the U.S., especially if Trump wins. His biggest priority will be cutting NHS wait times, and his solution is to create 40,000 more appointments every week. There are 7.5 million people on the waiting list in England, so it’s a major challenge.
Speaking of challenges! Trudeau’s Liberals face their own 20-point deficit. Is there any lesson they can take from the UK Tories to avoid the same fate?
There are many parallels. Both parties have been in power for a while, both have unpopular leaders and both face a reinvigorated opposition. But Tory MPs here are far more cutthroat in dumping leaders they feel can’t win – see Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss. There was talk that Rishi Sunak called the election before he could be ousted.
What happens to Sunak now?
He’s done as PM and Tory leader. If he wins his seat, he says he’ll stay on as an MP. If he loses, he’ll likely return to the financial world.
🎙️Paul Waldie spoke with The Decibel about the seismic change coming to British politics. Listen here.
The Shot
‘Instead of listening to their own students, they’re now calling the police.’
The empty field at U of T.Melissa Tait/The Globe and Mail
University of Toronto students packed up their tents yesterday, after a judge granted the school an injunction against the pro-Palestinian encampment – and authorized police to arrest anyone who didn’t leave by 6 p.m. Read more here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: When it comes to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions, B.C. and Ottawa are making decent progress – while Saskatchewan and Alberta lag behind.
Abroad: An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed a senior Hezbollah commander, as international diplomats scramble to curb an all-out war.
On the job: After serving in Afghanistan, commanding NATO troops in Iraq and trying to clean up misconduct in the military, Lieutenant-General Jennie Carignan becomes Canada’s first female chief of the defence staff.
On the bike: Tour de France rider Mark Cavendish sprinted to a record-breaking 35th stage win in Saint-Vulbas yesterday, which is not too shabby for a 39-year-old.