Good morning. We dig into what’s on the line in tomorrow’s U.S. election – more on that below, along with Frank Stronach’s return to court and Leafs coach Craig Berube’s family reunion. But first:
Today’s headlines
- The daughter of a Canadian woman killed by Hamas urges the government to stop linking ceasefire to hostage release
- Party leaders condemn violence at a Hindu temple in Brampton as Indian consular officials visited
- Danielle Smith solidifies her hold on Alberta conservatives with a UCP leadership win
Big day tomorrow.Illustration by Romain Lasser
U.S. Election
America’s vote hits home
Well, the U.S. election is tomorrow. And while many dynamics of this particular race have been unprecedented – Kamala Harris’s summertime vault to the top of the Democratic ticket; two separate attempts on Donald Trump’s life; the felony convictions; the fascist rhetoric; RFK Jr.’s whole deal with animals – you may be contending right now with a weary apprehension that feels mighty familiar. As in 2016, and again in 2020, there’s an astonishing amount riding on these results – not just for the States, but across Canada and around the world. The Globe asked several of our columnists and reporters to lay out the stakes of tomorrow’s contest. Here’s some of what they had to say.
The stakes for democracy
Maybe an unambiguous winner will emerge tomorrow evening. Maybe the results won’t be a bitter, drawn-out, contested affair. But regardless of the outcome in America, Andrew Coyne says, the problem remains “that half its population, and one of its two main political parties, have been so thoroughly radicalized, so profoundly alienated from their fellow citizens and so disillusioned with the institutions of American government and society as to be willing to embrace what it is no longer controversial to call fascism.”
The stakes for American women (and men)
In a recent ad from the progressive evangelical group Vote Common Good, a husband and wife in MAGA-coded kit stroll into their respective voting booths. She hesitates over Trump’s name on the ballot, then Julia Roberts’ voice cuts in: “In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote anyway you want, and no one will ever know.” The wife picks Harris. “This is one creepy window into the state of America,” Marsha Lederman writes. Yet it underscores “a critical moment that could see women’s rights built back into the safe fortress of government protection, or melt away into the MAGA mire.”
Buckle up.Reuters
The stakes for Canada
At his recent Madison Square Garden rally, Trump promised to launch “the largest deportation program in history” on day one of his second term – a policy that, however short on specifics, will undoubtedly send asylum-seekers heading for Canada’s border. Robyn Urback says that “with Canada bracing for a refugee crisis of its own making, the addition of migrants fleeing Trump’s deportation orders would further exacerbate our already overburdened immigration, health and housing services.”
The stakes for our economy
Trump’s scorched-earth policies pose massive risk to Canada’s economy, but our deep trade ties to the U.S. mean we’re vulnerable no matter who claims the White House, Jason Kirby, Matt Lundy and Mark Rendell report. Harris is hardly a free-trader, and the Biden-Harris administration has kept and even raised many of the tariffs Trump put in place. But Trump wants more, proposing 10- to 20-per-cent tariffs on all imports that could shave an estimated $45-billion off the Canadian economy.
The stakes for the world
Given the threats from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and assorted terrorist organizations, Konrad Yakabuski isn’t certain that either candidate has the requisite foreign-policy chops. “Even more than is usual,” he says, “this U.S. presidential election has the entire world on edge.” Still, Mark MacKinnon reports, Ukrainians will be watching tomorrow’s race with particular concern, since each potential outcome points to a very different direction in the war for their country. “A Harris presidency likely means stability in Kyiv’s most important relationship – and a continuation of the U.S. military and financial support that has enabled Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion,” he writes. “A win for Trump, meanwhile, means four years of dealing with a U.S. leader who openly admires Russian President Vladimir Putin and whose surrogates have spoken of cutting off aid to Ukraine.”
You can find more opinion and analysis about the U.S. election here, and follow The Globe’s latest updates on the race and its results here.
The Shot
‘You either have it or you don’t, and Craig has it.’
A statue honouring Craig Berube as the first Indigenous coach to win a Stanley Cup (with the St. Louis Blues, not – regrettably – the Leafs).Amber Bracken/The Globe and Mail
Toronto is a meat grinder for NHL coaches, but in Calahoo, Alta. – population 143 – Craig Berube’s relatives are confident he’s up to his new job. The Globe’s Marty Klinkenberg drops by the Berube family reunion.
The Week
What we’re following
Today: Billionaire and Magna International founder Frank Stronach returns to court in Brampton, Ont., where he faces multiple sexual-misconduct allegations.
Today: Georgian opposition parties will hold a rally in Tbilisi to protest a questionable election that returned the pro-Russia Georgian Dream party to power.
Tomorrow: I don’t need to say it again, do I? It’s the U.S. election, and in a race this tight, each candidate’s fortune may hinge on their ground game.
Tomorrow: Japan is set to launch the world’s first wooden satellite as an early test for using timber in space exploration.
Friday: Statistics Canada releases jobs data for October. After September’s positive report, more evidence of the labour market’s solid footing might tip the Bank of Canada toward another oversized interest-rate cut.
Friday: The Grammys announces its nominations in what’ll no doubt be a big year for Beyoncé, Sabrina Carpenter, Kendrick Lamar and, yes, Taylor Swift – who’s been disrupting wedding dates in Toronto.