A medical staff prepares a booster dose of Pfizer's coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine at a vaccination centre in Brussels, in January, 2022.Yves Herman/Reuters
The world remains woefully unprepared to respond to a new pandemic threat, the co-chairs of a global panel are warning.
People are exhausted from COVID-19, countries’ finances are stretched to the limit, and the next pandemic pathogen could be even more deadly, making broad action all the more important, even at a time of so many competing demands.
By turning away from pandemic preparedness, world leaders are gambling with everyone’s future, say Helen Clark, a former prime minister of New Zealand, and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a former president of Liberia.
“In a world beset by complex problems, averting another pandemic is one challenge that can be solved. Why would leaders make any other choice?” they ask in a new report, “No Time to Gamble: Leaders Must Unite to Prevent Pandemics.”
The 84-page document, released Tuesday in Madrid, is largely a progress report on what has happened since the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response published its landmark report in 2021.
That call to action, “COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic,” identified seven areas that needed to be addressed for the world to prevent another deadly pandemic:
- better political leadership on a global level and the creation of a global threats council and a new pandemic convention;
- improved country preparedness and the establishment of measurable targets and benchmarks;
- new financing to raise the US$10-billion to US$15-billion required annually and a plan for US$100-billion in surge financing in the case of an emergency;
- greater independence for the World Health Organization, including splitting the WHO into two entities, with one focusing exclusively on health emergencies;
- a robust surveillance and alert system that would allow the WHO to investigate pathogens with pandemic potential in all countries;
- more equitable access to medical countermeasures such as vaccines and treatments;
- and greater accountability for political and public-health leaders.
In the new report, Ms. Clark and Ms. Johnson Sirleaf say not enough progress has been made in any of those areas, with world leaders “tinkering around the fringes of existing systems” instead of making transformative change.
They warn that “dangerous gaps and vulnerabilities remain,” which means “pathogens have ample opportunity to spill over, slip through and spread fast.”
Ms. Clark and Ms. Johnson Sirleaf note, for example, the worrisome spread of H5N1 avian influenza and the emergence of a more deadly strain of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as potential pandemic threats.
They also caution that, while there are many other threats in the world, from wars to struggling economies, political leaders should not underestimate just how much damage a pandemic can cause.
COVID-19, for example, has an official death toll of seven million, but the report states that, given the number of excess deaths, the real death toll is likely about 28 million.
The report points out as well that the COVID-19 pandemic propelled the world into the fastest economic decline since the Second World War and the largest contraction of economies since the Great Depression.
Yet for all the risks, the investment in preparedness has been minimal. For example, only US$603-million was spent on pandemic preparedness in 2023, far short of the panel’s estimate that US$10-billion to US$15-billion is required.
Nevertheless, progress is being made on a global treaty on pandemic preparedness, and leaders of both the G7 and G20 have made important statements on the topic.
Ms. Clark and Ms. Johnson Sirleaf say that “statements are important, but they are not enough. The world needs leadership at the highest level to turn statements and recommendations into systems and action to protect people.”
“The good news is we don’t have to face another pandemic. While pandemic threats are inevitable, pandemics are a political choice,” they argue.
And they reiterate the central message of the new report: “Every day that preparation for a new threat is delayed is a dangerous gamble.”