One week after British Columbia’s provincial election, it’s still not known who will form government. After an initial count of ballots, the BC NDP are leading or elected in 46 seats, one more than the Conservatives Party’s 45, while the Greens hold the balance of power with two. In the B.C. Legislature, 47 seats are needed to form a majority government.
This weekend, Elections BC will conduct a final count and at least three electoral-district recounts. A Globe and Mail explainer on the recount process, and what happens next.
Why don’t we know the winner yet?
An initial count began after polls closed at 8 p.m. on election day, Oct. 19. Thanks to new voting processes and technology, results were reported faster than in the past: 85 per cent of preliminary results by 9 p.m., and 99.72 per cent shortly after midnight, according to Elections BC. In comparison, under the manual counting processes in 2017, only 13.5 per cent of preliminary results had been reported by 9 p.m.
However, many ridings are close this year, which means that a final count of outstanding ballots – which are mostly mail-in ballots, as well as absentee ballots – could change the results.
As well, there will be at least three electoral-district recounts. The preliminary count put the NDP candidates in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre ahead of the Conservatives by 23 and 93 votes, respectively, and an automatic recount is required any time the difference between the top two candidates is 100 votes or fewer. There will also be a partial recount in Kelowna Centre, where a transcription error was identified.
Elections BC reported late Friday that 66,074 mail-in and absentee ballots across the province will be counted as part of the final count.
What’s the process for the final count and recounts?
The counting of mail-in ballots begins on Saturday, starting with the closest districts, and will continue through Sunday. The recounts in Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Surrey City Centre and Kelowna Centre will begin Sunday, and a final count for absentee ballots will take place Monday.
Elections BC will post updates throughout the weekend, with final results expected Monday. Final count ballots are counted by tabulator in the electoral district where they were cast, while the recounts for Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre and the partial recount in Kelowna Centre will be done by hand.
How much of a difference could the absentee and mail-in ballots make?
A breakdown of votes to be counted, by riding, released late Friday showed that there are hundreds of votes to be counted in each riding this weekend – up to 1,869 in Victoria-Beacon Hill (which still would not change the result). These votes will be consequential in tight ridings; in Surrey-Guildford, for example, the Conservative candidate is ahead by just 103 votes, and in Courtenay-Comox, 234. The breakdown shows that there are 634 and 995 ballots to be counted this weekend in those ridings, respectively.
Historically, late-counted votes have almost always favoured the NDP. Chad Skelton, a data journalist and journalism instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, notes that the NDP has done better in late-counted ballots in every election going back to 2005, while the BC Liberals – the province’s main centre-right party until this year – have done worse. He has heard a couple theories on why.
“The most common one, and it’s mostly around absentee votes, is that when people vote outside of their district, it’s university students, and younger voters have historically been more left-leaning,” Mr. Skelton said. “Another theory is that possibly some unionized workers that work crazy shifts, like nurses, might be more likely to vote absentee.”
However, whereas all absentee and mail-in ballots used to be counted as part of the final count, this year’s new vote-counting process means that those received before the close of advance voting have already been counted, leaving the wild card of those who voted in the final days.
The new process also means that there are much fewer ballots to be counted late compared with 2017 – nearly 180,000 that year – meaning it will be harder to flip close races this year.
How is accuracy ensured?
The Election Act allows candidates, or a representative, to be present at recounts and final counts. Candidates often appoint legal counsel as their representatives. The BC NDP confirmed to The Globe and Mail that it will have scrutineers present at the Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat recounts, and likely at final counts in other districts as well. The Conservative Party did not respond to The Globe’s query about whether it plans to send scrutineers.